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2014: what lies ahead?

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Happy New Year?

According to the 37th END OF YEAR 2013 survey of nearly 68,000 people in 65 countries by WIN/Gallup International Association, although far from perfect and in spite of the many demonstrations in many countries against those in power, the worst of the crisis seems to be behind and a majority does answer positively to the question.



As 2013 drew to a close, pollsters were finding out how people across the world felt about the state of their lives and the coming 12 months. Here, the BBC’s world affairs correspondent, Paul Adams, analyses the findings.

Is the world getting better? Since 1977, opinion pollster Win/Gallup International has been asking this question of people around the world. Do responses for 2013 paint an optimistic picture?

There has been no big change this year, and the global figure is down from highs in 2004-5, but the upward trend since polling began in 1977 is pretty clear. Almost 50% say 2014 will be better than 2013. You have to go back to 1990 for the last time more people predicted a worse year than a better one.

Dr Ijaz Gilani, vice-president of Win/Gallup International, says a global decline in the role of the state has gradually empowered the ordinary citizen.

What about that dip after 2005? Rising commodity prices in the middle of the last decade put a huge dent in global optimism before the effects of the financial collapse of 2008 began to ripple out across the world. Remember, 85% of the world’s population lives outside North America and Europe.

One other thing: feeling good about 2014 isn’t necessarily the same as thinking it will bring economic prosperity: across the world, 32% think it will. And 30% think it won’t, according to Win/Gallup.

Home is where the heart is? A healthy plurality of people would prefer to stay put, but for those seeking sanctuary or opportunity abroad, Australia and Canada are now almost as desirable as the United States.

The American Dream is alive but less compelling. Washington’s heated immigration debate has perhaps begun to convey an impression that the world’s «huddled masses» are not as welcome as they once were. In the Middle East and North Africa, where post-Arab Spring turbulence creates high levels of political uncertainty, a surprisingly high number of people don’t want to move. Among those who do, Saudi Arabia is more appealing than America.

More bad, but not entirely surprising, news for the US. The world’s sometimes eager, sometimes reluctant policeman is the subject of widespread animosity. Predictable in some areas (the Middle East and North Africa) but less so in others. Eastern Europe’s 32% figure may be heavily influenced by Russia and Ukraine, but across most of Western Europe there are also lots of figures in the high teens.

In the Americas themselves, decades of US meddling have left an awkward legacy. Its neighbours, Mexico (37%) and Canada (17%), clearly have issues. Even 13% of Americans see their own country as a danger. Pakistan’s unenviable position as a (distant) second in the global threat stakes probably has a regional explanation – 15% of the world’s population lives in its neighbour and arch-rival, India… MORE

The world next year: 2014 (CFR)

In this special edition, Editor Robert McMahon and CFR’s Director of Studies James Lindsay preview major world events in the coming year: U.S. fiscal problems drag on; Iranian nuclear talks remain a global priority; a year of pivotal elections and domestic discontent; a new world of energy emerges; disputes in the East China Sea continue to raise tensions; and the race for the Arctic intensifies.

2014 What lies ahead

The Year the EU Sets Its Future Course
Washington’s World in 2014
Ten Trends That Will Shape Asia in 2014
A Year of Too-Great Expectations for Iran
Dealing With the New Normal in U.S.-Russian Relations
365 Days of Unequal Growth
The Year of the Voter in South Asia
Year Four of the Arab Awakening

Prospects 2014

Find out what our experts think 2014 has in store for the global political economy and that of Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, North America and Russia/CIS

Highlights from Prospects 2014

Global Risk Monitor

What historical anniversaries are on the horizon in 2014? CFR’s @JamesMLindsay shares ten: 
12:31 AM – 17 Dec 2013

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