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Allan Lichtman prediction for 2024 election

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“A lot of things would have to go wrong over the next several months to predict a Biden defeat.” There’s a possibility “Trump could be elected, but it’s out of Trump’s hands”, says Professor Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984. (Feb 8, 2024)

Political Pulse

The 13 Keys to the White House, developed by Distinguished Professor of History Allan J. Lichtman at American University, is an analytical framework for predicting the outcome of American presidential elections. Unlike polls and poll-based projections, this model pays attention to the larger picture, the consequential events during a president’s term, instead of focusing on campaigning and rhetoric.


In an interview, Lichtman revealed some insights about his system, noting that despite frequent political discussions and regular polls, it is too soon to predict the next election’s outcome.

In the 2024 model, the best chance for the Democrats to win is to have Biden run. This strategy secures two of the ’13 Keys’: the incumbency key, where the sitting president is running, and the lack of a substantial internal party conflict. The power of incumbency is underscored by the 2008 and 2016 elections, where the party in power suffered due to open seats. In the ’13 Keys’ system, six keys would have to fall for the Democrats to be predicted to lose.


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