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China Economic Outlook Fourth quarter 2018 (BBVA)

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018 vía @BBVAResearch

1. Global economy: Global growth is moderating slightly
and risks are intensifying 3
2. Growth slowdown has prompted the authorities to shift policy
stance to pro-growth 6
3. Trade war escalation and China’s easing measures
to support growth 15
4. Growth risks intensified 20

2018 Q3 GDP moderated to 6.5% y/y, down from the previous reading at 6.7% y/y and the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. The growth slowdown has prompted the authorities to reverse their previous neutral stance of policy to pro-growth so as to offset domestic and external headwinds.


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