Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

Developments and Forecasts on Changing Security Paradigm (EC)

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Globalisation, migration, geopolitical shifts, changing nature and balance of power, and increasing access of individuals to technological and social resources, have raised the world’s vulnerabilities to new levels and are changing the security paradigm.

The UN, NATO, and other security structures are based on the nation-state as the primary decision-making entity, which makes it increasingly difficult to address the new security challenges.

There is increased attention to prevention and pre-detection, to avoid conflicts and thwart eventual attacks.

Global outlook

  • Although trans-border wars are increasingly rare, global peacefulness deteriorated for eight of the last twelve years, with 2019 being the first improvement since 2014, according to the 2019 Global Peace Index. Of the 23 indicators assessed by the GPI (covering 99.7% of the world’s population), 17 have an average peaceful score lower in 2019 than in 2008. Terrorism and internal conflict impacted the most the global deterioration in peacefulness.
  • Of the 177 countries assessed by the Fragile States Index, some 125 are in the «warning» or «alert» category, including some EU-neighbouring countries. 
  • Battle deaths from conflict are at a 25 year high. The number of refugees and displaced people are at a 60 years high.
  • The total economic impact of violence on the world economy in 2018 amounted to $14.1 trillion (PPP) — equivalent to 11.2% of the world’s GDP– just a bit lower than $14.6 trillion (PPP) in 2017 (which was the higest).
  • ​​Violent conflictition — indicating the concurrence between local conflict and competition for global attention, and conflicciliation, as a combination of conflict and conciliation efforts — are the result of embedding local conflicts into global agendas and therefore into competition for attention and legitimacy.
  • | Related Megatrends:  InequalitiesDemographyMigration; Climate and environmental degradation
  • Withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, USA and Russia announced beginning to develop new nuclear-capable missiles banned by the treaty. This is also in reaction to their strategic disadvantage vis-à-vis other nuclear powers, especially China. 
    | Related Megatrend: Geopower
  • Conflict prevention and solution efforts will increasingly include NGOs and civil society, while a new social contract could increase prevention.

More on this Megatrend



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