The UK has been weakened, but so too has the EU. Relations between them need not be this bad
June 23, 2021
Five years after the fateful referendum on 23 June 2016, what is the current balance sheet of Brexit? Answer: two weakened unions, the British and the European, and bad-tempered relations between them. Lose. Lose. Lose.
The weakening of the British union is obvious. There will be another referendum on Scottish independence within the next few years. Scottish nationalists may win it with the argument that Scotland should leave the British union to rejoin the European one. A vote in Northern Ireland on Irish unification seems more likely than at any point since it was first provided for in the Belfast agreement in 1998. Boris Johnson’s government is full of rhetoric about keeping the union together but has no strategy for doing so.
The negative economic consequences of Brexit have been hidden by the impact of the pandemic, but some are now emerging from the Covid fog. Official figures show that British exports of food and drink to the EU declined by nearly 50% in the first quarter of 2021. An academic study has estimated that UK exports of services were cumulatively £113bn lower over the four years between 2016 and 2019 than they would have been if the country had not quit the EU.
Despite the glorious photo opportunities offered by the recent G7 summit in Cornwall, Britain’s international influence is clearly diminished. In Cornwall, the UK and the US promulgated a new Atlantic charter to mark the 80th anniversary of the original Atlantic charter, signed by Winston Churchill and Franklin D Roosevelt in 1941. An inoffensive catalogue of good intentions, it nonetheless invites a painful comparison between the global influence of Britain then and now. Countries such as Germany and France see their strategic future in the “European sovereignty” of the European Union, the very organisation that Britain has just left.
It is less immediately obvious that the European Union has been weakened. Some in Brussels and Paris even suggest the opposite, arguing that it is easier to agree on further steps of European integration after getting rid of the pesky Brits. Indeed, perhaps the greatest unity ever achieved between member states of the EU has been in their negotiations with Brexiting Britain. But if you want a “geopolitical” Europe, one that can hold its own against a superpower such as China, then losing a large member state with the financial, diplomatic, military and other assets of the UK is a big loss. Objectively, the union’s external strength is diminished at precisely the moment it needs to be increased.
Moreover, levels of Euroscepticism are alarmingly high in core member states. The vote share of Eurosceptic parties in the EU has more than doubled in the two decades since 2000. In a recent European Council on Foreign Relations poll, more than 50% of French, Germans, Italians and Spanish said they thought the political system of the EU was “broken” rather than “working well”. Only 46% of German respondents and just 38% of French said it was a good thing for their country to be a member of the EU.
These views are not a result of Brexit. Rather, they are a product of concerns similar to those that drove many Brits towards Brexit. But they are sharpened by the fact that there is now a large former member state with which to compare the EU’s performance. The figures in that ECFR poll are almost certainly so high because it was conducted in April this year, when the contrast between the UK’s and the EU’s vaccine rollout performance was most stark.
5 años después (The Economist)