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Forecasting in international relations (Foreign Policy articles)

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Forecasting Egypt’s presidential race

Education and forecasting the future

Great moments in forecasting

Forecasting the Aftermath of a Ruling on China’s Nine-Dash Line

A tribunal is likely to rule on China’s hazy claims to South China Sea sovereignty. How Beijing and others react isn’t set in stone.

Esther Dyson

Esther Dyson

Asia’s Telectronic Highway

Put food first, Zoellick tells the G-20

Greenspan: I am not infallible

Posted: 10 Worst Predictions of 2008

Why the World Can’t Have a Nate Silver

The quants are riding high after Team Data crushed Team Gut in the U.S. election forecasts. But predicting the Electoral College vote is child’s play next to some of these hard targets.

Waiting for the Revolutions

Don’t blame the experts who didn’t see the Arab Spring coming.

The effect of Sarbanes-Oxley

Argentina tells the CIA to mind its own business

Predicting the Future Is Easier Than It Looks

Nate Silver was just the beginning. Some of the same statistical techniques used by America’s forecaster-in-chief are about to revolutionize world politics.

So you want to jump into social media….

Just how good are foreign policy forecasters?

Iraq: We’re back in the game

Nicholas Stern’s new climate crusade

IMF releases portion of dire World Economic Outlook

The lack of correlation between jobs and trade

Morning Brief, Thursday, January 4

Morning Brief, Wednesday, September 5

Irrational exuberance about India?

Prospect Of A Trump Win Send Global Markets into Tailspin

Asian markets and Dow futures are sharply down as the chances of a Trump presidency increase.

Trending Upward

How the intelligence community can better see into the future.

Sudan, Saudi, and the cheering on the U.S. oil patch

Is There a Map to the Future?

The former head of the U.S. National Intelligence Council explains why governments try — and fail — to see over the horizon.

Eroding Public Support for Afghanistan? Perhaps, but Not (Yet) a Total Collapse

Political Risk Analysts See Ukraine as a Risky Bet Over the Next 10 Years

Consultants predict how much investors could lose to political turmoil around the world.

Democracy Lab Weekly Brief, January 5, 2015

Group Stage Wrap: The GNOE Returns

Our nothing-to-do-with-soccer World Cup predictor was, ahem, quite profitable.

Top Risk No. 6: Climate Change

Outsourcing destroys good IT jobs. Oh, wait…

Why it’s hard to predict the future

Al Gore refuses to gamble on the environment

This Week in China

The new

Playing Nostradamus

Big data show that history does indeed repeat itself. What does that mean for foreign policymaking — and tackling crises from Ukraine to Syria?

Why Big Data Missed the Early Warning Signs of Ebola

Hint: Ils ne parlent pas le français.

Mapping hate speech to predict ethnic violence

The Newest Potential Threat to the Olympics: Chemical Weapons

The oil leash and other under-noticed things about Putin’s re-election

Was the Seven Billionth Baby Really Born Today?

Perhaps, plus or minus 50 million babies.

What our enemies should have learned

Crystal Clear

Yes, rows of numbers can help predict revolutions. You just have to know where to look.

The Weekly Wrap: November 5, 2010

The GNOE’s Last Hurrah

Surprise — there are limits to how well politics and economics can predict World Cup matches.

The Next Big Thing: Africa

The poorest continent is rising. Really.

How Did Chile Estimate the Earthquake Damage So Fast?

High-tech guesswork.

Keynes: The Return of the Master

Keynesian economics made a brilliant comeback in 2009. It’s little wonder why.

The academy strikes back

Stressed About the Stress Tests

Old-time prediction markets

The productivity debate

Trump: I’ll Add 25 Million Jobs to the U.S. Economy

Trump laid out a fanciful and nearly impossible economic plan.

Nouriel Roubini

He may not be perfect, but there’s never been a better time to be in the prophet of doom business.

The Quiet Revolution

Technology is changing the way we fight war. But it’s also changing the way we make peace.

How to Save the Global Economy: Get Better Data

This Week at War: Doing More With Less

How can the U.S. still field a global military force in an age of austerity?

This Week at War: Mowing the Grass

Kenya and Turkey struggle to control the chaos next door.

This Week at War: The Afghanistan Vortex

What the four-stars are reading — a weekly column from Small Wars Journal.

Cracked China

Catching up on my weekend reading

BDM, in profile

Leaked Email: ABA Cancels Book for Fear of ‘Upsetting the Chinese Government’

The American Bar Association insists the move was market-driven, but an employee email says otherwise.

The age of irrational petro-exuberance

The Weekly Wrap — March 23, 2012

Venezuela’s productivity problem

Will U.S. military fatalities sway voters on Election Day?

Jobs for Billionaires

A few problems back here on Earth in need of some serious capital.

The Weekly Wrap — May 11, 2012 (Part II)

Venezuela’s Birthers May Be Right, but That Doesn’t Mean They’re Helping the Opposition Out

Venezuela’s Catastrophic Cash Crunch

Remember Kosovo? Well, we occupied it once, and they just had an election

Predictions are Hard: MEC Week in Review, June 28

It’s the end of S&P mattering, and I feel fine

A Friend in Need

As Syria implodes, the United States and its allies need to help Jordan help itself.

Dark Crystal

Why didn’t anyone predict the Arab revolutions?

McCain moves to shut down Pentagon’s power to reprogram funds

Don’t count Putin out quite yet

Hugo Chavez at the edge of reason

The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers

Sooner rather than later

Oil prices are exploding — but for how long?

The coming misery that Big Oil discusses behind closed doors

Donnelly: Sean Kay is wrong because, like so many realists, he overvalues realism

When the Chinese look at the US X-37B, they see the future of space-based attack

Number three in Best Defense’s countdown of 2014’s most popular articles.

When the Chinese look at the US X-37B, they see the future of space-based attack

I Joined Senior Citizens at a Stock-Picking Class in Shanghai; Here’s What I Saw

Entrance is free, but the software will set you back $490.

Gause: On Prince Nayef and the Succession

About Us

Turning Toward Democracy, Burma Casts Votes In Historic Election

Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy appear headed for victory.

Smog Day, School’s Out

China’s government once denied its pollution problem. Now it’s forecasting air quality to help keep Beijing residents safer.

Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Dies; Saudi Foreign Minister Visits Pakistan; Pentagon Identifies American Killed in Marjah

India Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Mufti Muhammad Sayeed dies at 79 The chief minister of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, Mufti…

12 Depressing Previews of America’s Next War

Here’s hoping past performance isn’t an indicator of future success.

Nostalgia Is a National Security Threat

By idealizing the past, Americans have made themselves unsafe in the present.

Shiny, Shiny Data: The Thrill of the Chase

Why Washington and Silicon Valley must work together to truly understand the world.

Warning: Winter Metaphor Alert!

How a foot of snow explains everything that’s wrong with Washington, D.C. … and the world.

The signal, the noise and the 2012 U.S. election

Pentagon implications as Romney argues Middle East no better than four years ago

Scare Cuts

From an emboldened Iran to unsafe beef, the eight most hysterical warnings about how automatic spending reductions could harm U.S. national security.

Give Mexico a Chance

It wouldn’t actually be that hard to restore Mexico’s economic fortunes — if the new president is willing to show some backbone.

How Is Energy Remaking the World?

To navigate the complicated new politics of oil and gas, FP asked the author of The Quest and leading U.S. energy historian to help shape our latest survey — and guide us through the results.

Why oil prices are keeping Putin up at night

The Coming Oil Crash

Good news! Gas prices could go down to $2 a gallon by autumn — and that’s bad news for Vladimir Putin.

When a stupid op-ed produces some smart debate

Sorry, but Africa’s Rise Is Real

Africa growth skeptics have got it wrong. The continent’s rise is very real.

Southeast Asia’s Economic Poster Child Is Stalling

How the Communist Party is fiddling while Vietnam burns.

Nate Silver vs. Kim Jong Un

Why we can’t figure out what North Korea will do next.

No One Saw This Coming

How we’ve been surprised by our growing ability to predict things.

This Week At War: The Pentagon Doesn’t Have the Right Stuff

The Navy can’t ‘contain’ Iran — even if we wanted it to.

Strategic Error

When the big picture misses the point.

Everything You Think You Know About China Is Wrong

Are we obsessing about its rise when we should be worried about its fall?

Is the Sky Really Falling?

The future of the aerospace defense industry is not nearly as bad as the industry would have you believe.

The Rocketeer

Forget Tesla. Forget the Hyperloop. Elon Musk is all about space.

Watching Cairo from Washington

Standard & Poor’s piss-poor political science

Who Tried to Kill Fang Xuanchang?

A chilling attack on a controversial science journalist in Beijing bodes poorly for scientific progress.

Has Sarah Palin made herself the most prominent victim of the Tucson shooting?

If I could change one thing (10): Slow down the officer merry-go-round

Mozambique’s Moment

With a growing economy and a freshly-signed peace agreement, Mozambique’s future looks bright. But it needs to act now to avoid the perils of the resource curse.

Where to Invest Around the World, 2014 Edition

Welcome to this year’s Baseline Profitability Index.

Holding It Together

Ending conflict demands more than knowing why countries go to pieces — it calls for knowing why they don’t.

A Brief History of the Next War

Iran, arms races, and war

This Week at War, No. 20

What the four-stars are reading — a weekly column from Small Wars Journal.

Should We Be Worried About Japan’s Economy, Too?

As China’s stock market continues to worry investors, Japan’s economy may again be suffering from a crisis of confidence.

Can a New Tool Help the U.S. Say (and Mean) ‘Never Again’ for Genocide?

Data made available by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum hopes to prevent genocide and other atrocities before they even begin.

Tentative answers to some big voting questions

Foxes, hedgehogs, and the study of international relations

Davos Diary, Day 6: Parting thoughts

Seven Questions: How to Deal with Irrational Exuberance

Robert Shiller is renowned for his prescience during the 1990s stock market bubble. In a time of renewed financial turmoil, FP turned to this distinguished Yale economist, housing-prices expert, and “market psychologist” for insights on today’s schizophrenic global economy.

Seven Questions: Joe Stiglitz on How the Iraq War Is Wrecking the Economy

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz talks to FP about Wall Street bailouts, America’s mountain of debt, and what U.S. taxpayers will end up paying for Iraq.

Future Perfect

For years, prediction markets have forecast elections with eerie accuracy. Now, they’re coming soon to a policy near you.

The Reports of Saudi Arabia’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

The kingdom’s economy isn’t teetering on collapse; in fact, it’s healthier than it has been in decades.

‘Security Is Only As Good As Your Fastest Computer’

China now dominates supercomputing. That matters for U.S. national security.

Here’s What Erdogan’s Referendum Means for Turkey, the EU, and the U.S.

It is far too early to assess the aftermath, but here’s what to watch for in the weeks ahead.

Major Nick Barringer says the Army’s new OPAT is garbage, but the Army’s leadership can’t see why that matters

There is a deep current of skepticism among our strategic leadership that exceptional physical fitness is a guarantor of success in modern combat operations.

Welcome to the World’s Least Ugly Economy

Despite inequality, debt, and a tariff war, the U.S. economy is still the strongest.

Don’t Believe Pundits’ Claims About the Cost of Brexit

Experts agree leaving the European Union will damage the British economy, but past performance should make them wary of offering outlandish assertions about an unknowable future.

FP’s Guide to the Indian Elections

Will voters give Narendra Modi another chance?

100% Right 0% of the Time

Why the U.S. military can’t predict the next war.

Final Countdown

Did the United States just set a March deadline for war with Iran?

Running Hills

Why senators shouldn’t head the Pentagon or Foggy Bottom.

The Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012

OK, it’s probably not going to happen. But if it did, who would win?

Oil Kingdom

Shale is the new peak oil, and that’s why Saudi Arabia still rules global energy markets.

Prepare to Start Making Things Again

Why America’s natural gas boom is good news for U.S. manufacturing and bad news for China.

Spanish Flu

Spain’s economy should be taking a turn for the better. So what’s wrong?

Brothers’ Keepers

American evangelicals were always big believers in democracy — until it reached the Arab world.

Five myths about the policy-academy gap

Where There’s a Will…

If the founding members of the eurozone don’t get their acts together, the euro will collapse.

The Weekly Wrap — Dec. 30, 2011

The Weekly Wrap — Sept. 9, 2011

Waiting for Spring

If the Middle East is your yardstick, the countries of Central Asia ought to be on the verge of revolution. But don’t hold your breath.

Gartzke on policy, political science, and zombies

What Pakistan did right

Welcome Back, Dr. Carter

As the new secretary of defense, Ash Carter has a few battles ahead of him. And the toughest challenges won’t be ISIS or Putin.

The Middle East’s Interrupted Atomic Dreams

As oil prices drop, nuclear power is becoming less attractive in the region. So why is Iran still hanging on to its program?

The List: What McCain and Obama Didn’t Talk About

Some of the most pressing international issues the next president will face were barely discussed during the 2008 campaign. How will McCain or Obama handle them? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Vladimir Putin Isn’t a Supervillain

Russia is neither the global menace, nor dying superpower, of America’s increasingly hysterical fantasies.

U.S.-Russia Competition in the Middle East Is Back

And the Trump administration needs a strategy to deal with it.

Taiwan’s Economic Charm Offensive Hits Chinese Walls

The island is searching for new economic partners, but Beijing’s hemming it in on every side it can.

Is Ukraine’s Joan of Arc Ready for Political Battle?

During her time in Russian prison, Nadiya Savchenko became a symbol for Kiev’s fight against Moscow. But can she make the jump from martyr to politician?

Putin’s Eurasian Dream Is Over Before It Began

The Eurasian Union that came into effect on Jan. 1 isn’t a sign of Moscow’s growing regional influence. It’s a sign of its decline.

The Pieces Are in Place for a Grand Bargain With China

Trade war is hurting everyone, but it has a geopolitical solution.

Welcome to the Next Deadly AIDS Pandemic

The world thought it had fought the HIV virus to a stalemate — but its strategy was flawed in ways that are only now becoming clear.

Is the World Ready for the Next Big Tsunami?

The latest disaster in Indonesia shows the need for the global system put in place in the wake of 2004’s devastating waves.

A Preview of Your Chinese Future

China’s vision of world order is a more radical departure—and more realistic alternative—than the West understands.

The Global Thinkers’ Book Club

From psychology to biography, economics to tech, see what some of the world’s top minds are reading.

Venezuela’s Glass Revolution

In 2013, Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution survived the death of Hugo Chávez. Now his successor, President Nicolás Maduro, confronts his toughest challenge yet: an economy on the brink. The latest in our series of Lab Reports on Venezuela.

The Signal and the Noise in Middle East Elections

Social media can tell us a lot about voting patterns — but only up to a point.

The UNESCO cuts: What’s next on the U.S. chopping block?

Le Scandal

The Arab world’s revolutions have exposed the moral bankruptcy of France’s foreign policy.

The GOP’s 1st Serious Latino Presidential Candidates Aren’t Solving Its Latino Problem

Rubio and Cruz give the GOP the first mainstream Hispanic presidential candidates in U.S. history. But it’s Donald “Build a Wall“ Trump that’s setting the tone toward Latinos — and winning their vote.

Critics Should Stop Declaring Defeat in Afghanistan

The war is not yet over and its outcome is not yet certain.

To do this weekend: Finish the Army War College library’s suggested reading list

The Real Trans-Atlantic Gap

Americans and Europeans see eye to eye on more issues than one would expect from reading the New York Times or Le Monde. But while elites on both sides of the Atlantic bemoan a largely illusory gap over the use of military force, biotechnology, and global warming, a survey of U.S. and European public opinion highlights sharp differences over global leadership, defense spending, and the Middle East that threaten the future of the last century’s most successful alliance.

What Future For Emerging Markets?

Yes, they have been walloped, but don’t discount how crucial they are when it comes to trade, climate change, peace and everything in between.

Ask the Author: Graham Fuller

In his January/February cover story, “A World Without Islam,” Graham Fuller takes issue with those who blame religion for the rift between East and West. He imagines what the world have looked like without Islam—and argues that it would look much the same. Now, he answers your questions about the role of religion, the future of the Middle East, and whether America invites terrorism upon itself.

Ask the Author: Graham Fuller

In his January/February cover story, “A World Without Islam,” Graham Fuller takes issue with those who blame religion for the rift between East and West. He imagines what the world have looked like without Islam—and argues that it would look much the same. Now, he answers your questions about the role of religion, the future of the Middle East, and whether America invites terrorism upon itself.

Donald Trump Is Making the Great Man Theory of History Great Again

The president-elect’s unpredictable rise is forcing historians and social scientists to rethink their most basic assumptions about how the world works.

The New Math of Geopolitics: Does It All Add Up to G-Zero?

A conversation between Ian Bremmer and David Rothkopf.

The Stories You Missed in 2010

Ten events and trends that were overlooked this year, but may be leading the headlines in 2011.

Meet the World’s Top Cop

Interpol’s Raymond Kendall explains why today’s world has him worried.

The Graveyard of Empires and Big Data

The Pentagon’s radical plan to crowdsource intelligence from Afghan civilians turned out to be brilliant – too brilliant.

Angela Merkel’s Great Escape

The chancellor’s response to the refugee crisis was going to be her downfall. Then Germany’s welfare state kicked in.

Leaders’ Statement: The Pittsburgh Summit

Statement by the G-20 leaders in Pittsburgh.

The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers

From the brains behind Iran’s Green Revolution to the economic Cassandra who actually did have a crystal ball, they had the big ideas that shaped our world in 2009. Read on to see the 100 minds that mattered most in the year that was. $(document).ready(function() { $(«#thinkers-nav»).insertBefore(«#tool-bar»); $(«#thinkers-nav»).show(); });

The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers

Foreign Policy presents a unique portrait of 2011’s global marketplace of ideas and the thinkers who make them.

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