A few samples from our predictions for 2020:
- The economic downturn will intensify the social crisis in the United States, compounding the ongoing political crisis.
- The most important European issue in 2020 will be the degree of instability in the United Kingdom. Regardless of how Brexit resolves itself, the unity of the United Kingdom has been shaken to the core.
- Russia’s foreign policy will continue to be on the surface aggressive but in practice very cautious. Russia must assert its politico-military capabilities but not trigger a response from nations excessively frightened by them, particularly the United States.
- To compensate for the internal weakness, China will seek to stabilize the social system by increasing repression. In addition, China will become more assertive militarily, particularly in the South China Sea but also the East China Sea as it tries to take advantage of the South Korea-Japan confrontation. We expect quiet political tensions among the elite to grow.
- Australia will find itself in an increasingly unstable region, with the sea lanes on which it depends for trade increasingly at risk. It will therefore have to maintain and enhance its relationship with the United States.