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How likely is large-scale war in Ukraine? (Center for Defense Strategies,The Kyiv Independent)

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Ukraine’s jet pilot off for a training flight. (Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces/ Facebook.)

January 24, 2022 4:28 pm by Center for Defense Strategies

Editor’s note: This is an analysis by the Center of Defense Strategies’ experts Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Alina Frolova, Oleksiy Pavliuchyk. It was originally published in Ukrainian by Ukrainska Pravda. The Kyiv Independent has translated it and is republishing it with permission.

Many politicians and observers report that a significant escalation of military aggression by Russia is highly probable.

Various scenarios are mentioned, in particular the widely discussed scenario of a full-scale military operation with the capture of either a large part of Ukraine or the whole country.

Western politicians and experts are actively discussing this scenario. There is talk of it happening in the coming weeks, or even days.

How realistic is such an invasion, and what will most likely happen?

In short, our conclusions are the following:

  1. A full-scale invasion capturing most or all of Ukraine in the near future seems unlikely.
  2. There are other threatening scenarios that may materialize.
  3. Ukraine must remain calm and actively prepare for the defense of the country in any case.

The current situation is very complex and extremely dynamic. Every day there is new data that impacts the forecast. Therefore, we are ready to update our position in the near future, should new data emerge.

…MORE:  War risk in Ukraine


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