IISS News @IISS_org

Watch live: Launch of Strategic Survey 2013, the annual review of world affairs + Q&A w/ panel of IISS experts… http://fb.me/OoQIh5le 

11:00 AM – 12 Sep 2013

Strategic Survey panel incl: @chipmanj @FitzpatrickIISS @emile_hokayem @AlexanderNicoll. Pls use #IISS if tweeting. http://bit.ly/1el1j6

Strategic Survey covers key developments in #Syria, #Egypt, #Iran, #NorthKorea, South #China Sea, #nuclear arms race in S. Asia & more #IISS

Strategic Survey: @chipmanj says events mean govts finding they have limited ability ‘to shape agendas & respond to challenges effectively’

Strategic Survey: @chipmanj says govts ‘were doing their best simply to manage’ but there was also a ‘failure of leadership’

Strategic Survey: International response to #Syria was most ‘tactical’, ad hoc of all, w/ humanitarian impulses to help vs. realpolitik

Strategic Survey: large use of chemical weapons on 21 Aug. changed the #Syria debate, but not the tactical nature of the response #CW

Strategic Survey: On #Egypt, West 1st vacillated over whether to call #Morsi overthrow ‘coup’, now needs to find useful response #IISS

Strategic Survey: ‘For the Middle East region, the central question will be how to deal with political Islam’ #IISS

Strategic Survey: Xi Jinping has taken command of foreign policy, is resolute in wanting China to be seen as a great power #IISS

Strategic Survey: US must reassure allies w/o emboldening them, & must hedge against Chinese assertiveness while engaging w/ Beijing #IISS

Q. on Russian plan for #Syria: A. @FitzpatrickIISS: Must wait & see. Never before have chemical weapons been secured during war #CW #IISS

Steve Simon: What’s happening w/ US, Russia & #Syria doesn’t set precedent. Each contingency slightly different, from Balkans to today

.@emile_hokayem: #Syrians I have spoken to very despondent abt West action, feeling abandoned. Nor do they trust Russian plan.

At #IISS launch @emile_hokayem says: bc #Syria rebels feeling abandoned, I wld expect more fighting + massacres soon. Now free-for-all.

.@emile_hokayem spks @IISS_org: We will see intense fighting in coming wks – regime to capitalise on oppositions sense of abandonment #Syria

IISS’s @emile_hokayem: The conditions to rally various rebel groups behind political process have shrunk dramatically.

IISS’s @emile_hokayem says prospects for Geneva 2 have diminished. Rebel leaders have said they oppose Russian-backed chemical weapons deal.

IISS’s @emile_hokayem: Russian boots on ground mooted as part of securing #CW. If this happens, rebels may see these troops as targets.

.@emile_hokayem suspects 21 Aug #CW attack was a miscalculation. Regime may not have meant to kill so many.

IISS’s @emile_hokayem thinks #CW use by regime will be suspended now unless Russian plan collapses

Russia shld be given credit for at least getting #Syria to overtly admit to #CW, says @FitzpatrickIISS. #IISS Strategic Survey

If just some Sarin precursors are destroyed, that is move fwd, says @FitzpatrickIISS. #IISS Strategic Survey

Imbalance of debate says @emile_hokayem: focus on liklihood of CW falling to rebels rather than discussing 14 cases of use by #Assad #IISS

Note that should rebels get their hands on CW, they wldnt have the means to deliver them. Not that easy to deploy effectively. #Syria

#Sinai was source of conflict btwn military & #Morsi, as military wished to secure it. Military operation now underway: @emile_hokayem #IISS

As complicated as #Syria is for the west, it is even more so for #Iran; draining [IRGC] resources causing internal debate: @FitzpatrickIISS

If Geneva2 got off ground & #Iran brought into #Syria process that may strengthen hand of new prez @HassanRouhani, says @FitzpatrickIISS

For more on @FitzpatrickIISS view that #Syria is #Iran‘s ‘Vietnam’, see recent article: http://bit.ly/17TJHar  #IISS Strategic Survey launch

In Strategic Survey 2013, @FitzpatrickIISS argues India+Pakistan need diplomacy to alleviate #nuclear arms race http://fb.me/2dFC52GMq