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Predicting results in US 2020 elections

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Frontline – The Choice 2020: Trump vs. Biden (full film)

With the nation in crisis, FRONTLINE investigates how President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden have responded to crises throughout their own lives. Sep 23 2020

Una campaña electoral al límite (Ian Bremmer (presidente de Eurasia Group y GZero Media) 

21 de sep 2020

The Economist

Explore our US elections forecast model

The elections are fast approaching, and the question on everyone’s mind is simple but momentous: Who will win? At The Economist we have built a predictive model which combines state and national polls with economic indicators and the latest machine-learning techniques to forecast the outcome of the race for the White House. The forecast is updated daily, and right now our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college and that he will secure the majority of the popular vote.

To find out more, visit our US elections forecast site, where you can also explore our state-by-state predictions and our newly released House and Senate forecasts.

See our US election predictions

The US elections home page

Welcome to The Economist’s coverage of America’s 2020 elections. You can follow our coverage by bookmarking this page, listening to our podcast on American politics or signing up for our weekly newsletter that features subscriber-only analysis of the latest polling data. We have built predictive models for the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives. If you are not already a subscriber to The Economist you can unlock some of our content by registering here.


Latest news

SEPT. 25, 2020

On Wednesday, President Trump refused to say whether he would commit to a peaceful transition of power if he lost the election, telling reporters: “We’re going to have to see what happens.” Earlier this month, we looked at a number of scenarios for what that might look like if this did, in fact, happen. At this point, though, no matter if you look at national or state polls — but you should really look at state polls — Joe Biden has a healthy advantage over Trump, leading him nationally by about 8 percentage points when you look at state polls.

  • One scenario for what happens if Trump won’t leave? The Supreme Court intervenes. It might help explain why Republicans are now scrambling to confirm a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election. It’s rare for a president to be able to shift the balance of the court with a single nomination, but that’s exactly what Trump’s pick of Amy Coney Barrett is poised to do. It could be unpopular, though: Public opinion shows that many Americans think the winner of the 2020 election should appoint Ginsburg’s replacement.
  • Another possible scenario? It’s increasingly likely we won’t know who won the election on Nov. 3. That’s because four important swing states (there’s a more than 50 percent chance that one of them will decide the Electoral College, according to our forecast) have already extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received. It’s possible that these extensions will be overturned, but at this point, it could be days after the fact before we know who won.



Allan Lichtman’s predicions for 2020 US elections (NYT)

The Keys to the White House

Mi análisis

El Podcast de Agenda Pública

¿Predicciones electorales en tiempo real?

Sep 20, 2020 · 23 min

Agenda Pública trabaja en la producción de una cobertura especial de las elecciones en Estados Unidos. Para ello contará con los análisis de su red de expertas y expertos. Y además trabajará con datos exclusivos del mercado de predicción. Esta herramienta permite conocer las posibilidades que tienen los candidatos de llegar a la casa blanca en tiempo real.
En este episodio te explicamos cómo funciona el mercado, porqué es aún mejor que una encuesta o un agregado de ellas y a qué tipo de predicciones podrás acceder a partir del 28 de septiembre en la web de Agenda Pública.


Profile photo, opens profile page on Twitter in a new tab

Un recorrido sonoro por la historia de las campañas electorales en EEUU

De Truman a Trump

Four more years


Por ello, The Hispanic Council, con la colaboración de la Fundación Consejo España – EE.UU., presenta esta publicación que pretende ayudar a comprender cómo funciona el sistema electoral de Estados Unidos, quiénes son los candidatos y cuáles son las claves para esta campaña, así como las curiosidades y anécdotas que envuelven a la política estadounidense. Un documento ameno, didáctico y útil para todo aquel que no quiera perder detalle de las próximas elecciones.

Descarga guía

Elecciones 2020

In a year of turbulence and drama, our panel of leading Guardian journalists will dissect the headlines behind this decisive election for US democracy.

After a booming economy looked set to propel Donald Trump to re-election, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and a summer of racial strife have seen a slump in his ratings, with national polls showing him trailing badly.

Ranged against him are Joe Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris – one a fixture of Washington politics for half a century, the other a relative newcomer. Are they doing enough not simply to oppose Trump but to offer a positive vision of their own?

Join our panel, which includes senior political reporter for Guardian US, Daniel Strauss; Guardian US political correspondent Lauren Gambino; columnist for Guardian US, Richard Wolffe; and chaired by Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland.


exp GPS 0927 Fareed's Take_00002313.jpg

Fareed: How Trump could lose the vote and stay in power

Fareed gives his take on why the President has been lambasting mail-in ballots, and what might happen if no candidate gets enough electoral votes.


Biden Now Predicted to Win 352 Electoral Votes: FiveThirtyEight

Los debates electorales de EE.UU., en RTVE v @rtve

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