Resources
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Events at a Glance
The resurgence of major-power geopolitics was the striking feature of international affairs in the year to mid-2014. Russia and Europe competed for influence in Ukraine, where a revolution in support of closer integration with Europe was followed by Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern regions. Tensions rose between China and Japan as the leaders of both countries stepped up their assertive nationalism. However, progress was made…
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Chapter 1: Perspectives
The dangers arising from disputes involving major powers palpably increased in the year to mid-2014. In Eastern Europe and in East Asia, the world’s most powerful countries engaged in a series of actions and reactions, testing each other out as they jostled for position in a shifting global order. International affairs appeared to have moved into new territory, an era of heightened strategic change. In Ukraine, a revolution was provoked by…
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Chapter 2: Strategic Policy Issues
According to a January 2014 Washington Post headline, 2013 was ‘the year of cybersecurity’. Rogue US National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden had leaked documents about the scope of global, covert communications-intercept programmes undertaken by the organisation and by the United Kingdom’s Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), detailed in a series of reports published by the Post and the Guardian. During the same period, US concern about the extent of state-sponsored industrial espionage emanating from China led…
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Chapter 3: North America
During his campaign for re-election in November 2012, US President Barack Obama repeatedly voiced the hope that his renewed mandate – if he won – might ‘break the fever’ of conservatives’ shrill and implacable opposition, and thus ease a crisis of governance in the United States. But, during the first year and a half of Obama’s second term, the fever, and the impasse, remained unbroken. The continued crisis of governance…
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Chapter 4: Latin America
Latin America’s transition to democracy made impressive strides in the preceding thirty years, but remained a work in progress. Even in countries where governance was sound or improving, citizens expressed dissatisfaction with elected leaders, and distrust in government. While some countries exhibited this trend more than others, the overarching theme in the year to mid-2014 was popular discontent. With the ballooning of the middle class – which expanded dramatically over the preceding decade – came raised expectations of elected…
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Chapter 5: Europe
The upheaval in Ukraine raised an unwelcome set of new concerns for European governments during the first half of 2014, disturbing their focus on securing economic recovery after a long recession. In Germany, Angela Merkel’s position as Europe’s most powerful leader was strengthened as she was re-elected as head of a new ‘grand coalition’, while in France the presidency of François Hollande continued to be troubled. In Turkey, the increasing…
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Chapter 6: Russia and Eurasia
In the year to mid-2014, Russia and Eurasia underwent the largest strategic shifts since the break-up of the Soviet Union. Most of these developments related to the Ukraine crisis, within which the key event was Russia’s March annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. The consequences of Moscow’s actions were profound, and reverberated far beyond the region itself. The most significant structural cause of the sea change was competition between Russia and the…
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Chapter 7: The Levant
The Syrian conflict and its spillover effects continued to drive the geopolitics of the Levant in the year to mid-2014. Syria’s neighbours struggled to adapt to the strategic implications of the country’s intensifying fragmentation. Neither the regime of President Bashar al-Assad nor the fractured rebellion appeared on the verge of collapse. This meant that Syria’s de facto soft partition and sectarian violence were coming to be enduring and organising features…
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Chapter 8: The Gulf
The resurgence of major-power geopolitics was the striking feature of international affairs in the year to mid-2014. Russia and Europe competed for influence in Ukraine, where a revolution in support of closer integration with Europe was followed by Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern regions. Tensions rose between China and Japan as the leaders of both countries stepped up their assertive nationalism. However, progress was made…
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Chapter 9: North Africa
The trajectories of the five North African countries differed significantly in the year to mid-2014, although the collapse of Libya and a series of jihadist attacks had the potential to threaten the security of any one of them. In Egypt, the armed-forces chief took power and was later elected president. Tunisia, despite political polarisation and bouts of violence, remained the sole success story of the Arab uprisings, adopting a constitution…
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Chapter 10: Sub-Saharan Africa
Insecurity and conflict continued to bedevil progress towards more stable and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. New crises emerged in the year to mid-2014, including in the world’s newest state, South Sudan, while smouldering struggles re-ignited elsewhere. On occasion, these provoked both African and broader military intervention, especially by France. The effect of the conflicts was to retard economic and social progress, and not just in the countries in which…
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Chapter 11: South Asia and Afghanistan
In India, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections in spring 2014, brought a new emphasis on economic growth. Modi faced huge public expectations to reduce inflation and lower food prices, provide more jobs and ensure effective governance, though he warned of tough decisions to ensure financial discipline, and raised railway fares. Institutional constraints, pressures of the…
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Chapter 12: Asia-Pacific
Strategic developments in the Asia-Pacific tended to be closely related to domestic politics, and the year to mid-2014 was no exception. In China and Japan, strong and more assertive leaders came to the fore and influenced foreign policy. In China’s case, President Xi Jinping quickly consolidated his power base, not least through an extensive anti-corruption campaign that affected the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as well as the broader party and…
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Chapter 13: Prospectives
The Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey published in mid-2014 recorded that 57% of the businesses that responded cited geopolitical risk as their principal challenge. This was up from just 13% the previous year, and only the risk of an economic downturn at 61% scored higher than geopolitical risk in the hierarchy of corporate concerns. As the survey was being conducted at the height of the Russia–Ukraine crisis when Western…