GENEVA — Less than five months after the military defeat of the Islamic State in Syria, a United Nations report is warning that the group’s leaders could launch international terrorist attacks before the end of the year, including those intended to “exacerbate existing dissent and unrest” in European nations.
In a bleak assessment of the global spread of jihadist movements, a report by United Nations analysts on the Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee said that Islamic State leaders, despite their military defeat in Syria and Iraq, are “adapting, consolidating and creating conditions for an eventual resurgence” in those countries.
The group, though hobbled by a lack of financing, is also exploring ways to “reinvest in the capacity to direct and facilitate complex international attacks,” the July report said.
“The current abatement of such attacks, therefore, may not last long, possibly not even until the end of 2019,” the analysts added. Their report was based on the intelligence assessments of United Nations member states.
President Trump confidently predicted the group’s elimination when United States and allied forces took Baghuz, Syria, the last stronghold of the Islamic State’s caliphate, in late March. The report’s authors, though, say the group still has many fighters in Iraq and Syria who are able to move freely and carry out attacks.
Some 30,000 Islamic State foreign fighters and dependents may have survived the conflict and “will be of international concern for the foreseeable future,” the analysts said. “Some may join Al Qaeda or other terrorist brands that may emerge.”
European governments have estimated that around 5,000 to 6,000 of their citizens have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join extremist movements, most of them signing up with the Islamic State. While many were killed or detained, up to 40 percent are unaccounted for.
The radicalization of people held inside Europe’s prisons “remains a critical concern,” the report said, noting the first wave of returnees who had been jailed were expected to be released in the coming year.