Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

U.S. Deterrence in a More Multipolar Middle East (CSIS)

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Center for Strategic and International Studies

It’s my pleasure to send you this brief of a tabletop exercise we ran last summer, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. With so much talk of the United States rebalancing away from the Middle East, we wondered how that context might affect a proliferation scenario in the Middle East.

As you can tell from the brief, the United States was in a less commanding position than might be ideal, but importantly, no other country filled any gap left by the United States. Russia and China actually sought to use the scenario to advance their interests vis-à-vis the United States. The exercise found that maintaining an open dialogue with Israel before, during, and after a proliferation scenario was of vital importance.

Please click here to download our brief. 

We remain grateful to the 14 experts who helped us conduct the exercise, as well as the 20 experts we interviewed around the world to help test propositions and deepen our understanding of our findings.

We have longer versions of this write-up that we’d be happy to share if you’re interested. Please let us know.


Jon B. Alterman
Senior Vice President
Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy
Director, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies 
1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW 
Washington, DC 20036

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