The Guardian Feb 22, 2023
Peter Beaumont in Kyiv
While experts differ on whether a new offensive is imminent, one year on the picture is very different to what was predicted
As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches on Friday, the picture looks very different to the first weeks of the war, when hundreds of Russian tanks poured over the border and airborne forces attempted to capture Hostomel airfield, outside Kyiv, as a springboard to take the capital. Here we look at the status of the conflict and what might happen next.
Is Russia already conducting a new offensive?
There have been contradictory assessments of Russia’s ability to conduct a significant new offensive. Although senior Ukrainian officials have warned repeatedly since before Christmas that Russia was planning a big new effort this year, evidence of preparations for a push similar to that of February 2022, involving a large-scale armoured attack, remains thin.
Recent claims, sourced to Nato officials, that Russia was amassing aircraft, were also largely discounted by the UK’s Ministry of Defence. And while Russia has greatly increased infantry numbers – some estimates suggest more than 300,000 troops are in Ukraine – there is no evidence of hundreds of tanks mustering in a region heavily surveilled by spy satellites.
The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has pointed to increased Russian efforts in the east as evidence that a “new offensive” has begun, but others see it as a continuation of efforts that have been going on for months. Russian shelling is less intense that it was in the summer around Sievierodonetsk, when Moscow was expending 60,000 shells a day.
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A Resilient Ukraine, One Year Later (CFR)