: . Every week, the Geopolitical Desk Weekly Newsletter breaks down the biggest global developments through a risk lens, built for professionals, analysts and anyone who needs to stay ahead. ’ : Both the U.S. and Iran claim to be in the driver’s seat. Diplomacy has stalled over who moves first. Tehran wants Washington to return to the original MoU, extend peace across the region and recognise a future Iran-Oman agreement governing the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is instead relying on economic pressure, an indefinite naval blockade threat and claims that it still controls the flow of oil through the Strait. Why it matters: Both sides are negotiating through pressure rather than at the table. A return to the agreement in a stronger “MoU+” form remains the most likely outcome, but a temporary relapse into fighting or a prolonged stalemate are serious alternatives. : Also in this week’s edition: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s new defence pact France’s latest diplomatic setback in Africa The economic pressures behind the Ceuta migrant crisis The Middle East’s emerging oil transport networks Libya’s economic and security reckoning