George Friedman@George_Friedman
In recent months, there have been radical shifts in the geopolitical model of the world. It is time to step back, see the whole picture and try to understand what it means. Some of the items we’re assessing are:
- The fundamental issue for the U.S. is China, whose economy is now the world’s second largest.
- In our view, Russia’s invasion of, and its inability to defeat, Ukraine, finally ended the Cold War.
- An understanding of mutual defense relations has thus emerged in Asia, including in India, which is often at odds, and currently has a border dispute, with China.
- An alliance structure has emerged in the Middle East, too, with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan joining into a defense pact, in a way encircling Iran.
Related
Trump Is Demolishing Four Pillars of American Power (The Atlantic, By Michael McFaul)
Geopolitical Desk Weekly Newsletter (August 16, 2026)
: . Every week, the Geopolitical Desk Weekly Newsletter breaks down the biggest global developments through a risk lens, built for professionals, analysts and anyone who needs to stay ahead. ’ : Both the U.S. and Iran claim to be in the driver’s seat. Diplomacy has stalled over who moves first. Tehran wants Washington to return to the original MoU, extend peace across the region and recognise a future Iran-Oman agreement governing the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is instead relying on economic pressure, an indefinite naval blockade threat and claims that it still controls the flow of oil through the Strait. Why it matters: Both sides are negotiating through pressure rather than at the table. A return to the agreement in a stronger “MoU+” form remains the most likely outcome, but a temporary relapse into fighting or a prolonged stalemate are serious alternatives. : Also in this week’s edition: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s new defence pact France’s latest diplomatic setback in Africa The economic pressures behind the Ceuta migrant crisis The Middle East’s emerging oil transport networks Libya’s economic and security reckoning
