The next elections, to be held in November 2024, will be a top focus area for US politics in the coming months. It is too early to forecast the final results, but a number of factors are already emerging that will shape the run up to the elections and their outcomes. These include the trajectory of the US economy and the success (or failure) of the Democratic and Republican Parties to each stay unified.

Domestic political and policy risks will be elevated in the run-up to the elections. Democrats and Republicans each control a house in Congress with thin majorities. Policy negotiations ahead of the high-stakes 2024 races will be fraught, even over essential spending bills, raising the risk of government shutdowns.

“Congressional gridlock will mean that the current president, Joe Biden, who is a Democrat and seeking re-election, will have to rely on executive action to implement his remaining policy agenda. However, any changes made in that way would be vulnerable to court challenges or being overturned by a future Republican administration. That highlights the sharp swings that we could see in US policymaking over the next few years, depending on how the 2024 elections go.“

ANDREW VITERITTI, COMMERCE AND REGULATION LEAD & US ANALYST, EIU

Tue, 25th Jul 2023