Russia and Ukraine: War or Bluff?
December 7, 2021
Russia sees itself as vulnerable, particularly from the west, where the most dangerous threats have historically originated. Belarus and Ukraine are the heart of Russian fears. The Ukrainian border is only a few hundred miles from Moscow and is therefore a major threat when in the hands of enemies.

The Debate Over America First
November 30, 2021
The modern notion of America First emerged in the years prior to World War II. The idea of an America that does not take responsibility for the future of other nations has been central to Democrats and Republicans alike.

Russia’s Move
November 23, 2021
Each century saw an assault on Russia that threatened its existence. It’s hard to forget something like that, and it’s hard for Russia not to be suspicious of moves on its periphery. There is nothing in Russian history to cause its leaders to think otherwise. This attitude makes Russia a threat to its neighbors.

Canada, Mexico, and America’s Reality
November 9, 2021
In any discussion of American strategy and of its strategic priorities, the most important issue is not the South China Sea or NATO but the maintenance of relations with Canada and Mexico. It’s true that at the moment each country has an overriding interest in maintaining their relationship, for reasons ranging from trade to social links. America is a global power pursuing global interests, and its domestic stability would be the first casualty of a land assault against Canada or Mexico.

Forecasting Time
October 26, 2021
Around November each year, we at GPF begin our forecasting process for the coming year. In a real sense, we are always forecasting, as our analysis may be about current realities but always with an eye on what these events portend for the future.