Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

30 diciembre, 2020
por Felipe Sahagún
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Forecasting the world in 2021 (FT)

Forecasting the world in 2021

FT writers share their predictions for the new year, from the availability and take-up of Covid-19 vaccines to the fortunes of the S&P 500.
 
A global pandemic was not on FT forecasters’ radar screen — or anyone else’s — one year ago. But it proved, tragically, the defining event of 2020, and will dominate 2021.

By pushing the US into recession and sending carbon dioxide emissions tumbling, it confounded two of our more confident forecasts — and only 18 per cent of readers in our online contest predicted these correctly. UK-EU trade negotiations left everyone guessing to the last, but the late agreement reduced our blushes, meaning we got only five answers wrong — still worse than four the year before. Angela Merkel’s grand coalition did not collapse, Matteo Salvini didn’t return to power in Italy, and Britain’s Labour party beat our expectations in making itself electable.  The top-scoring readers however, beat our total for a fourth year running. Three tied on 18 correct answers, and the absence of the Tokyo Olympics rendered our tiebreaker moot. Well done to Ravi Chachra of Mumbai, Ulrich Hege of Toulouse, and Daniel Maag of Singapore. Try to beat the FT in 2021 by providing your answers to the 20 questions and tiebreaker below, plus your real name and email. A happy, and healthy, new year. Neil Buckley.

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29 diciembre, 2020
por Felipe Sahagún
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The next 50 years (G. Freedman, Geopolitical Futures)

The Next 50 Years(George Friedman│Geopolitical Futures, Founder and Chairman): For better or worse, the world as a whole has been benefiting from public goods provided by the United States as a global leader since the end of World War II. Institutions of global governance such as UN, Bretton Woods system signified by IMF and World Bank, and GATT installed in place to promote international trade have all contributed to ushering in the era of peace and prosperity for 70 years.

With the re-emergence of nationalism and economic protectionism worldwide, it seems like we are at a historical juncture of heightened disenchantment with globalization. Moreover, recent outbreak of coronavirus may exacerbate an existing tendency for countries to turn inward. Against this backdrop, this session will explore whether any tectonic changes brought on by recent geopolitical upheavals will give rise to perpetual, systemic transformation or merely imprint transitory, albeit serious, impacts on both our society and the relations among nations.

Participants will examine how changing geopolitical factors will apply in the post-pandemic framework. Which actor(s) will likely play an increasing role in the post-pandemic global governance landscape? Will the US resuscitate its position as a world leader and maintain predominance over China even after 50 years? Will China, or any other country or multilateral body, eventually take over the US role to some degree? Participants will also discuss whether Korea can play a leading role amongst like-minded countries in facilitating a common interface in this rapidly changing world. In the end, this session aims to paint a broad picture on how recent global challenges and opportunities will change the geopolitical reality of 50 years from now. (Oct 2020)

29 diciembre, 2020
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

2020: the year in review

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Dear FRONTLINE community,

As this tumultuous year draws to a close, I am writing to you with a look back and a message of gratitude for your support.

Throughout a pandemic, a national reckoning with racism and a historically polarizing presidential election, you’ve joined us week after week for stories that matter.

Within weeks of the coronavirus pandemic emerging, we were on the ground asking tough questions and exposing painful scenes, both here and abroad. We examined how America’s outbreak became the worst in the world, why our leaders failed to protect us, and we revealed the hidden toll on some of the country’s most vulnerable people.

Against the backdrop of a pandemic that is disproportionately impacting Black, Indigenous, Latino and other communities of color in the U.S., the killing of George Floyd sparked an explosion of outrage. As the country grappled with the realities of racism both present and past, we unpacked the context for this profound moment with a team of journalists that has been covering questions of race, policing and inequality for years.

Through it all, of course, the election season was ramping up, and we examined the evolution of America’s divisions and the role of conspiracy theories in our politics. Our documentaries also took you inside the dueling biographies of the candidates and the fight over the integrity of the vote, and shared the unvarnished voices of your fellow Americans living through this historic time.

Along the way these many months, we also investigated China’s crackdown on Uyghur Muslims, the rise of Amazon and Jeff Bezos, the corporate corruption behind the opioid epidemic, the war over plastics and much, much more.

ll told, we brought you 25 new documentaries this year. We released more than 100 extended interviews through our ongoing journalistic transparency project. We supported and co-published dozens of vital local stories as part of an initiative to strengthen investigative reporting in areas of the country where it is endangered. We released nearly 30 new podcast episodes, expanding The FRONTLINE Dispatch and also launching a new series, I’m Not A Monster, with the BBC. Our journalism has grown in reach across digital platforms, including on YouTube, where many millions of people streamed FRONTLINE documentaries this year. And in this time of challenges and division, our work was recognized as «a social conscience for public television and American society.»

Whatever 2021 may hold, you can count on us to keep bringing you journalism that’s fair, trusted and transparent. We’ll be back at it in January, with the U.S. broadcast premiere of A Thousand Cuts — the story of how prominent journalist Maria Ressa became a prime target of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on the press, and the implications for democracy. It’s a special edition of FRONTLINE, Friday, Jan. 8.

Thank you for your continued support. We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy.

FRONTLINE Executive Producer
 
 

29 diciembre, 2020
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

The state of the world 2020 (Ian Bremmer)

Watch Ian Bremmer’s full keynote speech at the 2020 GZERO Summit in Japan. The coronavirus pandemic hasn’t invented today’s biggest challenges. For better and for worse, it simply accelerated important changes that were already well underway. It has exacerbated inequality of opportunity, both within and among countries.

In fact, the most severe COVID-19 impacts in 2021 will be economic, particularly as debts soar in developing countries and international lenders have less to lend. The pandemic has also sped up the erosion of faith in democratic institutions and international cooperation. But the economic damage inflicted by this crisis has accelerated the transition from the 20th century brick-and-mortar model of commerce and growth toward a more dynamic 21st century economy that is powered more by the flow of information and less by fossil fuels.

In short, thanks in part to the worst global health emergency in more than a century, the future will arrive sooner than we thought.

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