Forty years ago the reporting of two Washington Post journalists led to the downfall of a president, forever changing the American political landscape. Now, four decades after President Richard Nixon’s resignation, David Martin sits down for an exclusive interview with Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward. (Published on Jun 15, 2014)
New weapons like hypersonic missiles are potentially reducing the time nuclear decision makers have to respond to an attack. Two US deterrence experts are proposing an AI-based nuclear command, control, and communications system to ease this time pressure. http://bit.ly/2ZodCg5
«El gran hackeo» se centra en los datos, a los que “culpa” de los resultados del ‘brexit’ y la victoria de Donald Trump en las elecciones americanas. eldebatedehoy.es
The stock market is in turmoil, the trade war is dragging on and the global economy is slowing. Plus, it’s been 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it’s no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that “expansions don’t die of old age.” That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn’t mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it’s possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don’t know it yet.
“Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we’re in a recession once we’re in one,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. “The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we’re working on.”
Humanity now faces two simultaneous existential threats, either of which would be cause for extreme concern and immediate attention. These major threats—nuclear weapons and climate change—were exacerbated this past year by the increased use of information warfare to undermine democracy around the world, amplifying risk from these and other threats and putting the future of civilization in extraordinary danger. There is nothing normal about the complex and frightening reality just described.
