On July 3, 2013, Lilia Shevtsova and David J. Kramer confirmed previous reports on the interruption of the democratization processes initiated in different parts of the world after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in 1989. «The Fourth Wave of Democracy», as it was baptized after the liberalization of the political systems in Southern Europe, Latin America and Central-Eastern Europe since the mid seventies, seems to have stopped in the first decade of the 21st Century.

The Authoritarian Surge Will It Trigger a New Revolution?

By Lilia Shevtsova and David J. Kramer

The wait for the Fourth Wave of Democracy continues. Several times over the past decade, it seemed that it was about to unfold: in 2003–05, with the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia, the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine, and the “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan; and in 2011 with the “Arab Spring”, which sparked hopes in a part of the world that had shown virtually no movement in democratic development for decades. The turmoil in Egypt, the difficulties experienced by Libya and the daily tragedies in Syria have placed those hopes on hold.

As the wait for the fourth wave continues, we are witnessing a diametrically different phenomenon: the surge of new authoritarianism. It is happening across a culturally and historically diverse set of countries but is particularly noteworthy in the countries of Eurasia and even Central Europe. We see it in Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan in its harshest forms, and in milder versions in Turkey, Hungary and, some even worry, Georgia. The recent Freedom House report, Nations in Transit, paints the following picture…

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CONFLICT & SECURITY

Is democracy good for economic growth? Part I

As the world becomes increasingly fearful of the economic crisis which has emerged within the Eurozone, it seems poignant to contrast the fate of Greece, the home of democracy, and the centre of Europe’s economic malaise, with that of China, the poster boy for authoritarian governance. Whilst there are, of course, vast differences between these two countries, the economic rise of China under an authoritarian regime suggests that it is worth posing the question; is democracy good for the economy?

To begin, it is worth stating that democracy is a complex concept, so for the purpose of this article, we shall consider democracy in its most basic terms: A political system based upon the right of citizens to participate in political decision making through representation; whereby only laws essential to maintaining democratic procedures are necessary criteria to terming a state democratic…

Is Democracy Good For Economic Growth? Part II

Three weeks ago I argued that democracy often inhibits the economic growth of developing states. This is because democracy generally results in the diffusion of economic decision making throughout the population, which exposes domestic businesses to larger, more efficient, foreign competitors. Thus, I contended that centrally coordinated control over economic policy allows for greater long term growth, and the political conditions most favourable for this are authoritarian ones.

For example, all of the so called ‘Asian Tigers’ achieved economic growth through the implementation of protectionist economic policies, which were coordinated via a centralised authority. Moreover, almost all of these countries democratised only after their  economies had become developed.

Nonetheless, they did democratise, which brings us to another question: Is economic growth good for democracy. And the answer is, initially, no….

Is Democracy good for economic growth? Part III

So, economic development precipitates the growth of a middle class, which, in turn, ferments political reform, best manifested through democratisation.

But does this transition promote further growth?

The answer is yes, it does; however, this renewed economic growth is not the same as before. To understand this, it is worth considering the finite nature of economic expansion. Figures of GDP growth such as the annual 8% that china has been regularly posting are only sustainable for a limited amount of time.

As has been stated previously in this series, the driving force of national economic growth is competitive advantage. This is achieved, quite simply, by undercutting international competition, and selling goods or services to foreign markets at a lower price. This can only be achieved for so long, because the increasing export sales of national goods bring more money into the country, which leads to a subsequent increase in the value of domestic currency, which accounts for this financial increase…