By Alfred McCoy
Some 14 years ago, on Dec. 5, 2010, a historian writing for TomDispatch made a prediction that may yet prove prescient. Rejecting the consensus of that moment that U.S. global hegemony would persist to 2040 or 2050, he argued that «the demise of the United States as the global superpower could come … in 2025, just 15 years from now.»
To make that forecast, the historian conducted what he called “a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends.” Starting with the global context, he argued that, «faced with a fading superpower,» China, India, Iran and Russia would all start to «provocatively challenge U.S. dominion over the oceans, space and cyberspace.» At home in the United States, domestic divisions would «widen into violent clashes and divisive debates. … Riding a political tide of disillusionment and despair, a far-right patriot captures the presidency with thundering rhetoric, demanding respect for American authority and threatening military retaliation or economic reprisal.» But, that historian concluded, «the world pays next to no attention as the American Century ends in silence.»
Alfred W. McCoy is the Harrington professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is the author of «In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power.» His new book is «To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change.»