Friday, March 27, 2026

Saturday will mark one month since the United States and Israel launched their military campaign against the Iranian regime. Each Friday since February 28, I’ve posed a pressing question about the Iran war in the opening of this newsletter. This week: What have we learned in the past month?

Top Atlantic Council experts share their answers in the first pick below. Nate Swanson, who leads our Iran Strategy Project and previously served as Iran director at the US National Security Council, says we’ve learned that the Iranian regime is “bruised, battered, and (perhaps irrationally) bullish about its future.” He explains:

“Internally, the regime appears stable. The Islamic Republic has proven to be much larger than any one individual. There has not been any significant domestic uprising to date. Most notably, there have not been any defections among political and security elites. The most hardline voices within the system have been empowered. All these factors have led many within the regime to believe it is winning the war despite the conditions of the battlefield.”

The outlook is mixed for neighboring Gulf states, argues Allison Minor, a former director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the National Security Council. She writes that “Iran’s attacks on all six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council provide an unprecedented opportunity for its member countries to deepen their diplomatic, security, and economic integration in ways that could profoundly strengthen their resilience.” At the same time,

“longstanding fissures are re-emerging, including around how and when to end the war and what the region should look like after the bombs stop. And it appears there is still a rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that will jeopardize Gulf unity going forward.”

Interested in more lessons? Your AC Intel starts there. 

The Iran war has already yielded a range of cross-cutting lessons

Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz affects more than oil and gas

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Where things stand 1 month into the war with Iran (ABC)

How one month of war in Iran is felt in countries around the region (NPR)