Zanny Minton Beddoes
Editor-in-chief
Exactly four years ago, on May 1st 2021, we ran a cover with a map of Taiwan seen on a radar screen. Our title was “The most dangerous place on Earth” and our leader argued that the possibility of conflict between America and China over the future of Taiwan was no longer remote. Many readers, especially in Taiwan, were unhappy, accusing us of dramatically overstating the risks. And given what subsequently happened in Ukraine and Gaza, let alone Sudan or Congo, they were right. The Taiwan Strait has clearly not been the most dangerous place on Earth during the past four years.
Nonetheless, we stand by our basic thesis. In fact, four years on, we are more worried than ever about Taiwan’s future. So, by coincidence rather than design, we return to the subject on the fourth anniversary of that earlier cover. This time around relations between America and China are at a low ebb. Tariffs on both sides have severed trade between the superpowers. This has weakened America’s deterrence. In 2024 Donald Trump said that if China tried to invade Taiwan he would impose tariffs: “I’m going to tax you, at 150% to 200%.” Today tariffs are at 145%. America, in other words, has shot its bolt.
China, meanwhile, has been honing “grey-zone” tactics that would sidestep the all-or-nothing gamble of an outright invasion of its island neighbour. An additional vulnerability can be found in the chronic dysfunction of Taiwan’s politics. If Taiwan is unable to take decisive measures to raise its defence spending, America will be less likely to come to its aid. None of this will have gone unnoticed by China’s president, Xi Jinping. Not long ago it made sense for Mr Xi to think he should wait to wrest control of Taiwan. He may now conclude that he has an opportunity upon which he must act soon, before it goes to waste.
Read our cover package on Taiwan:
- Chinese military exercises foreshadow a blockade of Taiwan
- Can China sap a divided and isolated Taiwan of its will to resist?
- Any Chinese curbs on Taiwan’s trade would carry big economic costs
- The terrible secrets of Taiwan’s Stasi files