No matter the result, the US presidential election on November 3rd will have far-reaching consequences. The policy implications of a victory for the incumbent, Donald Trump, or the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, could not be more contrasting. We expect the candidates to take vastly different approaches in areas such as climate change and corporate taxation, as well as co-operation with European and Asian allies.

The election outcome will be decided by a few key swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. Given the unique polling circumstances created by the pandemic, we do not expect the results in these key states to be officially declared for several days—opening the door to electoral disputes and heightened political uncertainty.

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Kind regards,

Agathe Demarais
Global Forecasting Director

The Economist Intelligence Unit