It’s Thursday…and with all eyes on China and the business-driven agenda for meetings between presidents, many of the critical thinkers in the national security community are looking at what’s not on the agenda. 
 
For example, Russia has been bombarding Ukraine with attack after attack this week as fewer eyes seem to be paying attention and former senior CIA operations officer Sean Wiswesser writes exclusively in today’s Cipher Brief that Russia and China pose more of a threat when they coordinate their actions. This is something worth watching (and reading).
 
In another piece you’ll only read in tonight’s Cipher Brief, Brian Lessenberry, a senior fellow at the University of Virginia’s National Security and Data Policy Institute unpacks the consequences to the national security mission of post-9/11 analytic tradecraft standards that may be increasingly outdated (especially with the rise of AI-enabled analytic capabilities). Read more in this Cipher Brief exclusive. 
 
And retired Chief Warrant Officer 5 Joey Gagnard (who is also CEO of Atlas Special Projects and The Cipher Brief’s partner for this year’s Meridian Forge Summit) argues that even if the Pentagon secures its $1.5 trillion FY2027 budget request, it’s not necessarily an automatic game-changer. He argues that how that money is spent is the secret to success. (Here’s a hint, Gagnard writes that more funds going to advanced systems developed by neoprimes are bringing unprecedented levels of innovation to the defense sector.)  This is a must-read you don’t want to miss in The Cipher Brief. 
 
Here’s a look at the other key developments we’re tracking this Thursday…
 
A BIG DAY IN BEIJING – Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met for two hours today in the Great Hall of the People alongside a host of senior Chinese officials and American business leaders. The biggest headline to come out of that meeting was Xi’s warning of “clashes and even conflicts” with the U.S. over Taiwan if that issue is handled poorly. (Feels like a shot across the bow, eh?) The U.S. part of the delegation reportedly focused more on expanding U.S. market access in China and increasing Chinese investment in the U.S. Presidents Trump and Xi later took a tour of the famous Temple of Heaven in Beijing and met again for a state banquet. President Trump described the visit as “extremely positive and productive” and Xi toasted that the U.S. and China “should be partners rather than rivals.”
(If you’re curious – like we are – about what the personal dynamics between Trump and Xi – check out this Cipher Brief exclusive by Dr. Ursula Wilder and Dennis Wilder on what happens when a charismatic like Trump and a Machiavellian like Xi – meet.)
 
THAT IRAN THING – Trump said this morning that the Chinese president offered to help resolve the U.S. – Iran impasse and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  «President Xi would like to see a deal made. He would like to see a deal made. And he did offer, he said ‘if I can be of any help at all, I would like to be of help,'» Trump told Fox News. «Look, anybody that buys that much oil has obviously got some kind of relationship with them, but he said ‘I would love to be of help, if I can be of any help whatsoever.’ He’d like to see the Hormuz Strait open,» Trump said.
 
SO WHAT GOT DONE? The presidents agreed to develop a “constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability” led by cooperation and “measured competition,” which Xi said Beijing will treat as the guiding framework for the relationship for at least the next three years. Speaking from Beijing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC today that the U.S. and China, what he called the “two AI superpowers,” are going to set up a protocol to figure out how to best moce forward on AI and to make sure that nonstate actors don’t get ahold of these models. Bessent also emphasized the only reason such dialogue is possible is because “we are in the lead.” While China hasn’t yet agreed to make any purchases, the U.S. also cleared 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, making it likely this topic will come up in another meeting or two before Trump and his delegation, which includes Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, depart Beijing. 
 
ALL THE BUZZ IN CHINA – You may remember that back in 2020, China banned Secretary of State Marco Rubio from entering the country over his harsh criticism of Beijing. But a piece in the Washington Post today explains some interesting developments on why this is getting a lot of attention in China. According to the paper, it seems that Chinese officials started spelling his name using a different transliterated character for the “Ru” or “Lu”  after Trump named him secretary of state. The new set of characters for Rubio, while largely ignored in the U.S.,  is a ”buzzy topic on Chinese social media”. 
 
HORMUZ HAS DIFFERENT RULES FOR DIFFERENT FLAGS – Shortly after Trump and Xi discussed Iran, an Indian cargo vessel, likely hit by a missile or drone, sank off the coast of Oman. New Delhi condemned the attack and said all 14 crewmembers were rescued. A second ship anchored off the coast of the UAE was later boarded by “unauthorized personnel,” according to British maritime security agency UKMTO. Those waters are part of the “vast operational area” Iran now lays claim to with its expanded map of the Strait of Hormuz zone of control we told you about earlier this week. Despite Xi’s rhetorical agreement with Trump on the Hormuz question, these kinds of hostile incidents don’t seem to happen to Chinese ships like the Chinese supertanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude that transited the Strait without issue yesterday. Today, Iran’s state-run Fars news agency reported on an agreement between Tehran and Beijing allowing some Chinese ships to pass through the waterway. If China can get its vessels through the Strait, it remains to be seen whether Beijing will actually buy American oil, as Xi intimated to Trump, or contribute to getting the Iran war resolved.

CENTCOM CHIEF: TEHRAN’S MILITARY  ‘DEGRADED’ BUT STILL A THREAT –  Commander of U.S. Central Command Adm. Brad Cooper told the Senate Armed Services Committee today that although Iran’s military capabilities have been “significantly degraded,” Tehran remains a threat in the Strait of Hormuz, and commercial ships continue to avoid transiting the vital sea route. “The Iranian capability to stop commerce has been dramatically depleted through the strait, but their voice is very loud,” Cooper testified, according to Politico.  “And those threats are clearly heard by the merchant industry and insurance industry.” Cooper disagreed with a report  in the New York Times Tuesday that U.S. intelligence has assessed that Iran still has about 70 percent of its mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile. Cooper said those numbers “are not accurate,”that it will take years for Iran  to replenish its missile levels, and its naval forces might remain diminished  “for a generation.” 
 
RIYADH PUSHES  GULF STATES-IRAN PACT –  Saudi Arabia is floating the idea of a non-aggression pact between Tehran and other Middle East states, the Financial Times reported today, citing unnamed Western diplomats.   The trial balloon comes amid Saudi Arabia’s talk with allies on how to lower regional tensions once the US-Israeli war with Iran winds down.  Saudi officials remain concerned that Iran will be weakened but still led by radicals and a threat to the Gulf states, once the U.S. backs away.   Many European capitals, and the EU institutions, back the Saudi idea and are pressing other Gulf countries to support it, according to the FT.    
 
RUSSIA ANSWERS CEASEFIRE TALK WITH MASSIVE DRONE STRIKE – For the third straight day, Russia has continued a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, destroying an entire apartment building in Kyiv where at least seven people are reported to have been killed so far with dozens more injured. The attacks over the last few days have involved more than 1,560 drones striking more than 180 sites across Ukraine, including over 50 residential buildings. “We are now experiencing the largest strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion,” Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said. Still, Ukraine has managed to intercept over 93 percent of Russian drones and missiles. Notably, one Russian drone strike was so close to the Hungarian border with Ukraine that Budapest summoned the Russian ambassador, marking a tone shift from the days of warm relations between Budapest and Moscow. Addressing the attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked, “These are definitely not the actions of those who believe the war is coming to an end,” referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments to that effect made this past weekend.

UKRAINE’S NEXT IMF TEST – IMF officials are headed to Ukraine to assess Kyiv’s progress under an $8.1 billion loan program, with a formal review expected in June to determine whether the next tranche of support can move forward. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said international assistance remains essential, but warned that Ukraine must do more to raise domestic revenue as wartime financial needs continue to mount. A major focus will be bringing more of Ukraine’s informal economy – estimated at nearly half of GDP – into the formal tax system. The visit underscores a growing challenge for Kyiv: even as Western aid remains critical to sustaining the war effort and the economy, Ukraine is under increasing pressure to prove it can expand its own fiscal base and meet reform benchmarks.
 
CUBA’S ENERGY CRISIS HITS THE STREETS – According to reporting from Reuters, Havana saw its largest single night of protests last night since Cuba’s recent energy crisis caused by the de facto U.S. blockade on energy imports began. Hundreds of demonstrators marched through streets, blocked roads, and shouted slogans like “The people, united, will never be defeated!” Earlier in the day, Cuban Energy Minister Vincente de la O Levy said the nation had completely run out of diesel and fuel oil. “We have no reserves,” he said on state-run media, adding that the power grid had entered a “critical” state. Cuba has only received one shipment of oil since December, when a Russian tanker provided the country with temporary relief in April. 
 
US TAKES CONTROL OF VENEZUELA’S ENRICHED URANIUM – The U.S., partnering with the U.K. and International Atomic Energy Agency,  ​has removed an unspecified amount of ​highly-enriched ​uranium from ​Venezuela’s ​shuttered research ‌reactor, ⁠the ​State ​Department said today. The  RV-1 research reactor was supplied to Venezuela as part of the Cold-War-era Atoms for Peace program.  The enriched uranium was transported by the U.K. to the Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina, in early May.