By Christopher Skaluba, Philippe Dickinson, Dominykas Kaminskas / @ACScowcroft
History was made in the unimaginatively named Departmental Auditorium. That is the Washington, DC, room where, seventy-five years ago today, the North Atlantic Treaty was signed by representatives from twelve nations. The Alliance the treaty created, NATO, was born following two destructive world wars and a reasonable fear that Soviet aggression might soon set off a third. The Alliance sought to establish peace at a moment when such a notion seemed almost rebellious.
Seventy-five years is a long time. Long enough, at least, to take some things for granted. It’s reasonable to claim that this applies to the Alliance and the peace that it has helped ensure for its members for seventy-five years. NATO is nowadays seen as such a staple of the security architecture in the North Atlantic that even its members sometimes forget to reflect on just how powerful, diverse, and foundational to the modern world it has become.
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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds the closing press conference at NATO headquarters on the second day of the NATO foreign affairs ministers’ meeting in Brussels on April 4.Omar Havana/Getty Images
NATO rang in its 75th birthday on Thursday with a modest celebration that was clouded by urgent concerns over how to bolster Ukraine’s defenses amid stalled funding in the U.S. Congress and the potential threat of a second Donald Trump U.S. presidential term.
“NATO’s biggest battles to fight are still in the future, and we have to be ready for them,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters in Brussels during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Thursday.
One of the alliance’s most immediate challenges is crafting a long-term plan to support Kyiv as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stretches into its third year. Those pressures have been compounded by ongoing uncertainty over the future of U.S. support, particularly as the Biden administration’s $60 billion aid package to Ukraine remains stalled in Congress and former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly questions the alliance’s security provisions.
On Wednesday, NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg proposed establishing a 100-billion-euro fund that would be distributed to Kyiv over a five year-period. As part of the proposal, NATO would also take on a more active role in managing the Ramstein Group, also known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a U.S.-led coalition that arranges arms deliveries to Kyiv.
But the proposal sparked some pushback among some other NATO members, with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto warning that Budapest would not support any plans that “might draw the alliance closer to war or shift it from a defensive to an offensive coalition.” Washington also questioned the alliance’s ability to oversee the Ramstein Group, citing the importance of “American leadership” in uniting the coalition.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials have ramped up their calls for more military support. “I didn’t want to spoil the birthday party for NATO, but I felt compelled to deliver a sobering message on behalf of Ukrainians about the state of Russian air attacks on my country, destroying our energy system, our economy, killing civilians,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
NATO will hold a bigger anniversary celebration when alliance leaders meet in Washington for a summit in July.
Timothy Garton Ash@fromTGA75 years of NATO, 1949-2024. Then, according to its first secretary general (Ismay): to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. Now: to keep the Russians out and the Americans in we need the Germans UP. (Doing more to strengthen the European pillar of NATO).
- NATO at 75: The Alliance’s future lies in Ukraine’s victory against Russia by Ian Brzezinski
- Fighting history’s ‘blind tides’ by Frederick Kempe
Foreign Policy
APRIL 4, 2024
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With no new U.S. military aid on the way to Ukraine—for now—NATO is looking to step up in a big way.
The 32-nation alliance is considering taking over the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the U.S.-led group of nations that coordinates military aid deliveries to Kyiv. It’s also looking to establish a five-year aid package to Ukraine worth more than $100 billion, alliance officials confirm to SitRep (the Financial Times first reported the news on Tuesday), with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg pitching the effort to the allies directly.
“Every day of delay in the decision in the United States on providing more support to Ukraine has consequences on the battlefield,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Wednesday. “So we have a responsibility as NATO allies to take the decisions and to ensure that the Ukrainians get the ammunition they must have to be able to continue to push back the Russian invaders.”
Trump-proofing. NATO’s not saying the quiet part out loud, but much of this effort centers on future-proofing the alliance—and Ukraine’s security—if Donald Trump wins a second term as U.S. president. It’s going to be much easier said than done.
Trump hasn’t said he would cut U.S. military aid to Ukraine (though he held up military aid to Kyiv in his first term in a move that led to his first impeachment). But he has insisted that he would broker a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin—Ukraine has said it won’t participate in peace talks with Moscow until all Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory—and that he would encourage the Russians to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that don’t spend enough on defense.
Robbie recently spent three days traveling with Stoltenberg and has a new piece out with Stoltenberg’s thoughts on what Trump 2.0 might mean for the alliance. Read it here.
Urgent needs. There are some problems with NATO’s flashy new $100 billion plan, unveiled to alliance officials at a NATO foreign minister’s meeting in Brussels this week that coincides with the alliance’s 75th anniversary.
The plan appears to be a long-term one meant to outfit the Ukrainian military of the future. But Ukraine’s needs are much more urgent: It is running low on ammunition while Russia is stepping up attacks and by all accounts gearing up for major offensives later in the spring.
At a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Brussels today, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the alliance to send more Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine to help clear the skies (Germany plans to help with the search for available systems). “I don’t want to spoil the birthday party, but my main message today will be Patriots,” Kuleba said.
Fine print. You know the old saying: Some restrictions may apply; see store for details.
That’s true in this case, too. NATO doesn’t have much money of its own. With that in mind, NATO’s $100 billion plan looks nice on paper but will be difficult to actually implement. For the plan to work, it will need the alliance’s political willpower and muscle to push the 32 member states to get it done. And that still requires tapping into the biggest “arsenal of democracy” the alliance has: the United States.
Plans in Brussels can’t get around Europe’s—and Ukraine’s—excessive dependence on U.S. military power.
“The alliance keeps getting headlines that suggest it is going to do things it absolutely can’t do like, say, instantly put 300,000 troops on high-alert (their 2020 announcement) or pull 100 billion out of thin air (this weeks story),” the Washington Post’s Brussels bureau chief Emily Rauhala tweeted on Thursday. In short, it’s a game of wait and see.
Don’t do it. NATO’s recent moves come after weeks of members flirting with the idea of sending troops to Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron famously declined to rule out the possibility last month (though British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has).
In a rare phone call on Wednesday with French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned that France will “create problems” for itself if it sends troops to Ukraine. Though Shoigu also offered a seeming olive branch for potential talks to conclude the war, the phone call alone sends quite a message.
Today, April 4, marks the 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ahead of the NATO Summit in Washington in July, the Wilson Center is exploring the challenges, opportunities, and legacy of the most successful military alliance in history. Follow along using #NATOat75
The Washington Summit: What’s at Stake For NATO’s 75th Anniversary
This is outstanding! #NATO75 pic.twitter.com/OebRtEbBhQ
— Charles Powell (@CharlesTPowell) April 6, 2024
NATO Doesn’t Have Enough Troops. For the first time in decades, NATO has a plan to fight Russia. Now it just needs the forces to do it.