The Conflict Barometer 2025 can be downloaded here.

With the 34th edition of the Conflict Barometer, the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK) continues its annual study on global conflict.

Since 1992, the Conflict Barometer has qualitatively and quantitatively recorded the dynamics of political conflicts, both violent and non-violent, worldwide. In accordance with the HIIK methodology, violent conflicts are classified according to their intensity into violent crises (intensity 3), limited wars (intensity 4), and wars (intensity 5). Non-violent conflicts are divided into disputes (intensity 1) and non-violent crises (intensity 2). The annual report is supplemented by conflict maps, graphics, and datasets as well as Spotlight texts that shed light on the wider context of current conflict dynamics.

The year 2025 was marked by a slight reduction of conflicts worldwide. However, the number of violent conflicts increased, just like the number of full and limited wars:

In 2025, the HIIK documented a total of 359 conflicts worldwide, an overall decrease of five conflicts. Of these, 221 were violent (62 percent) and 138 non-violent (38 percent). While 59 conflicts escalated and 45 de-escalated, 255 conflicts remained with the same intensity as in 2024. The HIIK opened six new conflicts in 2025 and four more retroactively.

Compared to the previous year, the number of wars rose from 27 to 28. Cambodia – Thailand (border), Pakistan (Islamist militant groups), South Sudan (opposition), and Iran – Israel conflicts escalated to full wars. Additionally, one war in Syria (Suwayda / Southern Syria) erupted at the level of war as well. Five wars de-escalated, while 23 kept their intensity to 2024. The number of limited wars increased by two from 23 to 25 in 2025.

The number of non-violent conflicts decreased from 155 to 138. Two conflicts were settled by the conflict parties themselves: Türkiye (PKK, KCK); Myanmar (UWSA, NDAA / Shan State). Six more closed due to inactivity.

As in previous years, the most common types of conflict were intrastate with 241, followed from afar by 60 interstate conflicts, then 41 substate, and finally, 17 transstate conflicts. While the number of inter- and intrastate conflicts remained constant, transstate conflicts increased by one and substate conflicts decreased by six. The most common of the ten methodically followed conflict items, material or immaterial goods which are sought by the direct conflict actors through conflict measures, were system/ideology (in 162 conflicts), resources (in 102 conflicts), and subnational predominance (in 88 conflicts), closely followed by national power (in 87 conflicts).

Once again, sub-Saharan Africa was the region with the most wars. A total of 13 wars, two less than past year, were observed in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan. Twelve of these wars maintained their intensity from the previous year, while one conflict escalated to war. Three wars de-escalated to one limited war and two violent crises. A total of 86 conflicts were observed in sub-Saharan Africa, an decrease of two. 66 conflicts in the region were violent, three more compared to the previous year. Moreover, ten limited wars were observed in 2025, four less than in 2024.

In the West Asia, North Africa and Afghanistan region, the number of wars rose from five to six, compared to the previous year; the number of limited wars decreased by two with three observed. Three wars involved Israel, Hamas, Lebanon, and the State of Palestine. The other two wars were fought in Syria, one involving the new oppositional constellation and a new war in the Suwayda province of Syria. Furthermore, a twelve-day war between Iran and Israel increased the number of wars in the region. A total of 64 conflicts were observed in the region; 44 were violent. In total, conflicts decreased by two in the region.

In Asia and Oceania, the number of observed wars rose from five to seven compared to the previous year, five of which involved Myanmar, as in the past. Two wars escalated, one in Pakistan involving Islamist militant groups, and another around the Cambodian-Thai border; the number of limited wars decreased from five to three. Overall, the highest number of global conflicts of the year was observed in the region: 100, of which 55 were violent and 45 non-violent. This marked a decrease of two conflicts compared to the previous year.

In Europe, only one war, being the Russia-Ukraine war, and no limited wars were observed. In total, 47 conflicts were observed in the region, an increase of one. Out of them, twelve were violent, as in 2024.

In the Americas, while the only war in Haiti continued, the number of limited wars increased from three to five, involving Colombia, Mexico, and the United States in the Caribbean waters across Venezuela. Just as in 2024, a total of 62 conflicts were observed in the region, 44 of which were violent, nine more violent conflicts than in the previous year.

July 16, 2026
The HIIK Board