17 enero, 2025
por Felipe Sahagún
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15 enero, 2025
por Felipe Sahagún
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Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections
Summary
- A new survey for ECFR reveals people in many countries around the world are upbeat about the second Trump presidency.
- Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations.
- In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president—suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical “West”.
- Ukrainians are slightly more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending the conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about what could be an acceptable compromise settlement with Moscow.
- Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading an outright resistance to the new administration. But the survey reveals that many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China—a strength European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term.
- Rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and seeing opportunities in the new world.
15 enero, 2025
por Felipe Sahagún
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The U.S. is unprepared for a major war (Max Boot)
Trump’s defense secretary pick would face a staggering challenge in readying America for war.
By MAX BOOT
Washington Post
January 13, 2025
Tuesday’s confirmation hearings for defense secretary are sure to focus on all the troubling allegations of misconduct swirling around intended nominee Pete Hegseth (which he has denied). But let’s not lose sight of the big picture. The essential question that senators must ask is whether Hegseth, a Fox News host and former National Guardsman, has the capacity and experience to prepare the armed forces to fight a major war — and, if so, how he would go about it. Because right now, the U.S. military simply is not ready to defeat an adversary such as China or Russia in a protracted conflict.
Don’t take my word for it: That’s the judgment of the congressionally chartered, bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy, which issued its final report in July. The commission, chaired by former California congresswoman Jane Harman, came to a sobering conclusion that did not get the attention it deserved: “The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war. … The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today.”
Read more in the Washington Post
14 enero, 2025
por Felipe Sahagún
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RAMSES 2025 (Thierry de Montbrial)
RAMSES, l’ouvrage prospectif de référence, propose chaque année à un large public (étudiant, enseignant, manager, journaliste, diplomate…) les clés et repères indispensables pour décrypter les évolutions du monde, selon un credo simple : «Éclairer, ne rien imposer«.
RAMSES 2025 interroge le monde d’après autour de 3 thématiques :
- Moyen-Orient : la recomposition sans fin
Les acteurs directs du conflit semblent incapables d’en revenir à un dialogue politique. Les acteurs voisins manoœvrent au fil de leurs intérêts d’État, à la recherche d’une introuvable recomposition régionale. Les puissances extérieures pèsent-elles vraiment ? - États-Unis : l’empire inquiète…
La puissance américaine reste dominante. Mais ses échecs extérieurs et l’effervescence des crises la brident dans les redéploiements stratégiques annoncés. Plus grave : les divisions minent la société américaine : extrémismes, inégalités, drogues, guerres culturelles… - Union européenne : un destin contrarié ?
Confrontée à un mur de défis – élargissements, dynamisation de ses économies, budgets, course technologique, transition climatique, sécurité… –, l’Union européenne semble aujourd’hui plus subir l’avancée du monde que la penser ou la gouverner. Pour quel avenir ?
Assorti d’un riche appareil documentaire (annexes statistiques, chronologie, cartographie originale) et de vidéos des auteurs venant compléter et approfondir les analyses de l’ouvrage.
14 enero, 2025
por Felipe Sahagún
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The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. As longtime listeners will know, a G-Zero world is an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order.
We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must.
And the former—whether states, companies, or individuals—can’t be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over. It’s not a sustainable trajectory. But it’s the one we’re on. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.
Related
Top Risks 2025: America’s role in the crumbling global order
2025: The year we get better at being wrong
Escalating armed conflict is most urgent threat for world in 2025, say global leaders
Global risks: These are the biggest risks we face now and in the next 10 years (WEF)
Video resumen de 2024 de 6,44 minutos
14 enero, 2025
por Felipe Sahagún
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