• World oil demand is on track to expand by just shy of 900 kb/d in 2024 and close to 1 mb/d in 2025, marking a sharp slowdown on the roughly 2 mb/d seen over the 2022-2023 post-pandemic period. China underpins the deceleration in growth, accounting for around 20% of global gains both this year and next year, compared to almost 70% in 2023.
• Global oil supply plunged by 640 kb/d in September to 102.8 mb/d, with Libya’s political quagmire disrupting the country’s oil production and exports, and as field maintenance work in Kazakhstan and Norway lowered output. Non-OPEC+ supply growth of around 1.5 mb/d this year and next is led by the Americas, accounting for 80% of gains.
• Refining margins slumped further in September as gasoline, jet and diesel cracks deteriorated while crude prices improved on a relatively tighter market. As a result, global crude run estimates are further reduced by 180 kb/d to 82.8 mb/d for 2024 and by 210 kb/d to 83.4 mb/d in 2025, representing annual gains of 540 kb/d and 610 kb/d, respectively.
• Observed global oil inventories declined by 22.3 mb in August, led by a 16.5 mb draw in crude oil stocks. OECD industry stocks fell counter-seasonally by 13.4 mb to 2 811 mb, 102.7 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data suggest oil stocks fell further in September. Relatively robust refining activity and OPEC+ supply cuts have underpinned a 135 mb draw in crude stocks since May, while product stocks built by 35 mb over the same period.
• Brent crude futures rallied $8/bbl in early October, with markets on tenterhooks about Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack. The unwinding of ultra-bearish investor exchange positioning contributed to the price rebound. Prices had slumped to multi-year lows in September, driven by the prospect of an amply supplied market in 2025. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $78/bbl.

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