Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

23 enero, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

The challenges of 2024 (Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House)

A lecture and discussion on the year ahead in international relations with Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive of Chatham House.

Geopolitics will continue to test leaders in 2024. The Israel/Hamas conflict is ongoing and discussions about solutions are not yet in sight. Russia continues to bombard Ukraine; the outcome of that conflict may well hang on the US elections in November. In response, the European Union is considering its first expansion for a decade. An acceleration in AI and a blazing hot summer – literally, in Canada and Mediterranean countries – made the point about the speed of change on those fronts. Meanwhile, stubborn inflation, “higher for longer” interest rates, and a possible slowdown in China and the US give a difficult backdrop to a year of elections. More than half the world’s population live in countries that will hold national elections in 2024, including in the UK, US, India and Taiwan – the greatest number ever.  

This event examines the forces that will shape 2024 and what that means for international relations.

 

23 enero, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Failure at the fence (Washington Post, PBS, Frontline)

A groundbreaking visual investigation in collaboration with The Washington Post featuring a detailed examination of how Hamas was able to breach Israel’s vaunted security barrier on Oct. 7 and carry out its attack. This special collaboration stems from a Post reconstruction, now deepened with additional on-the ground reporting and riveting interviews that present a remarkable picture of how, as the Post reporters show, Hamas was planning the attack in plain sight, and Israel was blinded to its own vulnerabilities.

LINK

Related

How Hamas exploited Israel’s reliance on tech to breach barrier on Oct. 7

ISRAEL-GAZA WAR

Tracking damage within the Gaza Strip through maps

Presenting Two Probing Documentaries on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

NETANYAHU, AMERICA & THE ROAD TO WAR IN GAZA

 

23 enero, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

EU 2024

Please join the Europe Center for a virtual public event on “What’s on the EU agenda for 2024?” This event will take place virtually on Wednesday, January 24 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. ET.

Gérard Araud.  Distinguished Fellow

Noah Barkin
Senior Advisor, Rhodium Group; Visiting Senior Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Frances Burwell. Distinguished Fellow

Georg Riekeles
Associate Director and Head, Europe’s Political Economy Programme
European Policy Centre

Staff

Jörn Fleck.  Senior Director

2024 will be a year of elections and change on both sides of the Atlantic. At the European level, citizens across the Union will vote for a new European Parliament in June, which will lead to the appointment of a new European Commission for the next five years. The results of these elections won’t just potentially alter the direction of the European Union’s priorities but will also shape US-EU bilateral cooperation and the future of the transatlantic agenda. Nevertheless, the current European Commission still has a number of agenda items before the June elections. With shifting priorities ahead of the election, what can we still expect the EU to get done in 2024? Continue leyendo →

23 enero, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Davos Dispatch: The case for optimism amid global upheaval (Atlantic Council)

Davos Dispatch: The case for optimism amid global upheaval

By Fred Kempe, Atlantic Council President and CEO
 
DAVOS—Amid the geopolitical gloom that pervaded the World Economic Forum here this past week—with intractable wars in Europe and the Mideast and unsettling tensions in Asia—International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva made a case for optimism, quoting the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes.

Continue leyendo →

21 enero, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Lara Marlowe on love and war

A conversation between Lara Marlowe and Emilie Biggs at the American Library in Paris. Filmed on 13/07/2022 with a live audience both in person and on Zoom. Lara Marlowe, Paris-based foreign correspondent for The Irish Times newspaper, discusses the war in Ukraine and her memoir Love in a Time of War, My Years with Robert Fisk. Described by Noam Chomsky as “A gripping tale of savagery and courage, of history in the making, intertwined with rich personal reminiscences,” this account of her relationship with renowned British journalist Robert Fisk describes the intensity of love and the perils of journalism, set against geopolitical turbulence and violent war. Marlowe brought her nearly 40 years of work in journalism to the library to discuss the writing of this book, the complicated experiences of war correspondents, and her perspective on the Ukraine war. (July 17, 2022)

21 enero, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Allan Lichtman prediction for 2024 election

 
“A lot of things would have to go wrong over the next several months to predict a Biden defeat.” There’s a possibility “Trump could be elected, but it’s out of Trump’s hands”, says Professor Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984. (Feb 8, 2024)

Political Pulse

The 13 Keys to the White House, developed by Distinguished Professor of History Allan J. Lichtman at American University, is an analytical framework for predicting the outcome of American presidential elections. Unlike polls and poll-based projections, this model pays attention to the larger picture, the consequential events during a president’s term, instead of focusing on campaigning and rhetoric.

…MORE

In an interview, Lichtman revealed some insights about his system, noting that despite frequent political discussions and regular polls, it is too soon to predict the next election’s outcome.

In the 2024 model, the best chance for the Democrats to win is to have Biden run. This strategy secures two of the ’13 Keys’: the incumbency key, where the sitting president is running, and the lack of a substantial internal party conflict. The power of incumbency is underscored by the 2008 and 2016 elections, where the party in power suffered due to open seats. In the ’13 Keys’ system, six keys would have to fall for the Democrats to be predicted to lose.

Related

2024 US President Election Predictions

Famed Election Predictor Allan Lichtman Shares New Insight on 2024

The Keys to the White House

Trump Wins New Hampshire, Defiant Haley Challenges Him to Debate

Trump gana con claridad en New Hampshire pero Haley sobrevive

Wall Street’s bargain with Trump