Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

19 agosto, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Ukraine’s war: some lessons and risks (Eurasia Review)

Air Force Staff Sgt. Shawn DeMarco, a crew chief assigned to the Maryland National Guard, gives the green light for takeoff to Air Force Maj. Eric Calvey, an A-10 pilot, June 22, 2023, during Exercise Air Defender 2023 at Jagel Air Base, Germany. Photo Credit: Air Force Staff Sgt. Laura Weaver

Air Force Staff Sgt. Shawn DeMarco, a crew chief assigned to the Maryland National Guard, gives the green light for takeoff to Air Force Maj. Eric Calvey, an A-10 pilot, June 22, 2023, during Exercise Air Defender 2023 at Jagel Air Base, Germany. Photo Credit: Air Force Staff Sgt. Laura Weaver v @eurasiareview

By 

By Jim Garamone

The U.S. Air Forces Europe and Africa are learning lessons from the Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine to develop strategies, capabilities and tactics needed to better defend the NATO nations, Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker told the Defense Writers’ Group Friday. 

Hecker, speaking from his headquarters at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, also discussed the situation in Africa. 

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has given NATO leaders a view into President Vladimir Putin’s military machine. “It has given us the opportunity to take a look and learn some lessons from what’s going on in the last year and a half,” Hecker told reporters. “I think, by far, the largest lesson that we’ve learned is that neither side was able to get air superiority. I think we all thought that Russia would get it within a couple of days, and we’d be looking at a 10-day war.” 

Ukrainian counter-air capabilities were up to the task. The general said Ukrainians shot down at least 75 Russian aircraft before the Russians changed tactics. Many were knocked down by shoulder-fired, anti-aircraft weapons, he said. Russian forces charged to the suburbs of Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv before the Ukrainian military pushed them back. 

Had the Russians gained air superiority, it may have been a totally different picture. “But since they weren’t able to do that, we end up with a fight that we have today … we haven’t seen one like this probably since World War I,” the general said.  

…MORE

 

17 agosto, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Forecasting war in Taiwan

Imagen

The Economist

In the early 1980s, during a tense period in the cold war, the Soviet Union feared that America and its allies were considering a nuclear strike and went looking for warning signs. The kgb’s list of indicators ranged well beyond the military sphere. Big campaigns to donate blood, the slaughter of livestock and the movement of art might signal that an attack was coming.

Today a new kind of cold war pits America against China. And again analysts are looking for signs of a potential conflict. The most likely flashpoint is Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims and America supports. Were China planning to invade Taiwan, its military preparations would be hard to hide. But before troops begin to muster, other actions, of an economic and financial nature, might signal China’s intent.

The Soviet Union mistook ordinary activities, such as blood drives, for possible indicators of war. When it comes to China, finding signals in the noise is even harder. The country has spent decades improving its armed forces. It routinely stockpiles food. And it has hardened its economy against potential sanctions. All of these actions have fed fears of war—yet they do not necessarily mean that one is imminent. The challenge for Western intelligence agencies, then, is to imagine how China might deviate from this wary baseline in the run-up to an actual attack.

…MORE

Forecasting war in Taiwan  (PdF)

 

17 agosto, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Operaciones de paz en 2023

 

Por Mariano Aguirre

14 de agosto de 2023

Pese a que en la guerra de Ucrania Naciones Unidas ha quedado casi totalmente a un lado, catorce operaciones de mantenimiento de la paz lideradas por esta organización cumplen actualmente un papel importante en situaciones conflictivas. De manera paralela, hay otras 6 operaciones multilaterales de paz llevadas a cabo  por coaliciones de Estados aprobadas o sancionadas por el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU. 

Las operaciones de paz (peacekeeping operations) de las Naciones Unidas se rigen por los principios de consentimiento de las partes; imparcialidad y no uso de la fuerza, excepto en legítima defensa, y para el cumplimiento del mandato. Desde la creación de la ONU estas operaciones han tenido diferentes objetivos. Al principio, estaban orientadas a evitar el enfrentamiento entre dos contendientes, pero en las últimas tres décadas se transformaron en misiones con múltiples funciones implementadas por miles de miembros civiles y militares. Ahora, la tendencia es que sean más pequeñas, con mandatos limitados y mayoritariamente ejecutadas por organizaciones regionales. 

…MORE

RELATED

9 agosto, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

The world’s top economies in 2023

bne IntelliNews

 
By Ben Aris in Berlin August 7, 2023

The late US Senator John McCain once called Russia a “gas station masquerading as a country” and the fact that Russia’s nominal GDP is about the same as Italy’s has long been used to dismiss it as unimportant.

However, economists have long argued that considering only Russia’s nominal GDP of around $2 trillion is to underestimate its economic strength. Arguably, the belittling of Russia over the last decade has led Western leaders to badly miscalculate how vulnerable the Kremlin is to sanctions.

Looking at GDP in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms removes price level differences and allows a better comparison, especially of living standards, between countries.

…MORE