Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

1 julio, 2021
por Felipe Sahagún
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The rise of China: 100 years of the CPC

The Robber Barons of Beijing. Can China Survive Its Gilded Age?

By 

(Foreign Affairs)

It seemed like a typical story of Chinese corruption. Stuffing suitcases full of company shares, the businessman lavished bribes on influential officials in exchange for cheap loans to subsidize his railroad projects. The target of his largess, those in charge of public infrastructure and budgets, were his friends and business associates. Their family members ran firms in the steel industry, which stood to benefit from the construction of new track. Over time, as the ties between the officials and the businessman grew closer, the officials doubled their financial support for his ventures, indulging his inflated costs and ignoring the risk of losses. Slowly but surely, however, a financial crisis brewed.

Stories like this are endemic to China: business leaders colluding with officials to exploit development projects for personal enrichment, graft infecting all levels of government, and politicians encouraging capitalists to take on outsize risks. No wonder some observers have insisted since the 1990s that the Chinese economy will soon collapse under the weight of its own excesses, and bring down the regime with it. But here’s the twist: the businessman is not Chinese but American, and the tale took place in the United States, not China. It describes Leland Stanford, a nineteenth-century railroad tycoon who helped catapult the United States’ modernization but whose path to immense fortune was paved with corrupt deals.

The Gilded Age, which began in the 1870s, was an era of crony capitalism as well as extraordinary growth and transformation. Following the devastation of the Civil War, the United States rebuilt and boomed. Millions of farmers moved from fields to factories, infrastructure opened up long-distance commerce, new technology spawned new industries, and unregulated capital flowed freely. In the process, swashbuckling entrepreneurs who seized on the right opportunities at the right time—Stanford, J. P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller—amassed titanic levels of wealth, while a new working class earned only a pittance in wages. Politicians colluded with tycoons, and speculators manipulated markets. Yet instead of leading to disintegration, the corruption of the Gilded Age ushered in a wave of economic, social, and political reforms—the Progressive era. This, along with imperial acquisitions, paved the way for the United States to rise and become the superpower of the twentieth century.

…MORE

Infographic: 100 years of China’s Communist Party

Cien años del PC chino (Newsweek)

China’s Communist Party at 100: State-run celebrations underscore its iron grip (Washington Post)

¿Cómo relacionarse con China? El gran dilema de las democracias

China‘s ruling party censors its past as centenary nears

Xi’s call this month to tell more positive stories about China

 

1 julio, 2021
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

The hottest temperatures around the world (AJE)

June was an exceptionally hot month for several countries in the northern hemisphere. Since Friday June 25, at least 486 sudden deaths have been recorded in Canada’s British Columbia province as temperatures soared to nearly 50C (112F). In the United States, the ongoing heatwave has buckled highways and melted power lines. A so-called “heat dome”, where high pressure traps the heat, is being blamed for the excessively high temperatures.

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30 junio, 2021
por Felipe Sahagún
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España ante la rivalidad estratégica entre China y EE.UU. (Real Instituto Elcano)

La rivalidad entre China y Estados Unidos es el gran evento geoestratégico de nuestro tiempo. Es necesario, por tanto, plantear una reflexión reposada sobre el impacto en España de dicha competencia, sus posibles vías de evolución y las medidas que sería deseable adoptar desde nuestro país para intentar influir en su desarrollo ulterior o, cuanto menos, adaptarnos a su evolución para garantizar el bienestar de los españoles.

De ahí que este informe tenga una clara vocación práctica, orientada a la toma de decisiones, y aspire a dinamizar el debate público sobre un tema de gran trascendencia. Este policy paper se divide en tres partes. La primera analiza los efectos de la confrontación entre EEUU y China sobre el orden internacional vigente, enfatizando los riesgos que conlleva para el multilateralismo y la globalización, la reacción de la Unión Europea a este proceso y los condicionantes de España para encarar este reto geopolítico y estratégico.

La segunda parte profundiza en las áreas en las que la rivalidad sino-estadounidense repercute de forma particularmente relevante para España. El informe concluye presentando una serie de propuestas para que España afronte esta tensión geopolítica de forma que defienda sus intereses y valores con las máximas garantías posibles.

Participantes: 🗣 Fidel Sendagorta, director general de Política Exterior y de Seguridad del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Unión Europea y Cooperación | @yiuqodrag 🗣 Elena Pisonero, presidenta de Taldig y fundadora de Relathia| @elenapisonero 🗣 Mario Esteban, investigador principal del Real Instituto Elcano | @wizma9

Presenta y modera 🗣 José Juan Ruiz, presidente del Real Instituto Elcano | @ElcanoJjRuiz

30 junio, 2021
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Germany’s Neo-Nazis & the Far Right

FRONTLINE investigates the rise of far-right extremism and violence in Germany. The documentary traces how extremists have carried out terror plots and attacks on Jews and migrants, infiltrated the security services, and what authorities are doing to confront the growing problem.

 

29 junio, 2021
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Worldview Mid-Year Stratfor Forecast 2021

The Worldview Third Quarter Forecast report is now available, with our take on the issues with greatest potential to impact stability across the globe and in every major region. We address a variety of risks in the report, but here are some of the highlights:

  • The third quarter will see a continuation of the global two-speed recovery heavily influenced by countries’ access to vaccines and the success of their vaccination campaigns.
     
  • The U.S. and Europe will emerge relatively quickly given their more successful vaccination campaigns, but slower vaccine rollouts in Japan and Korea will slow economic growth and the developing world will struggle under the weight of lagging vaccination efforts and limited external financing.
     
  • The Biden administration will continue efforts to improve diplomatic relationships, looking to resolve trade disputes and instigate greater cooperation on issues like climate change and global taxation.
     
  • The U.S. will also continue efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, though until a deal is reached we expect a continued aggressive expansion of Iran’s nuclear program and a high risk of asymmetric activity in the quarter.
     
  • We expect U.S.-China tensions to escalate as an increased focus on human rights and COVID-19 investigations come into conflict with China’s rising domestic nationalism.
     
  • In Russia, the Kremlin will seek to minimize political blowback ahead of September elections, pushing responsibility for vaccination efforts and policy to regional and local leaders.
     
  • In Russia, the Kremlin will keep a tight lid on any opposition that emerges during national elections in September and will impose mandatory vaccination campaigns.
     
  • September will also see elections in Germany that could result in a divided lower house of parliament, making coalition negotiations likely.
     
  • The much-anticipated U.S. pullout from Afghanistan by Sept. 11 will see a new power structure in Afghanistan emerge as the Taliban looks to seize more control.

ACCESS THE FORECAST REPORT