The Worldview Third Quarter Forecast report is now available, with our take on the issues with greatest potential to impact stability across the globe and in every major region. We address a variety of risks in the report, but here are some of the highlights:
- The third quarter will see a continuation of the global two-speed recovery heavily influenced by countries’ access to vaccines and the success of their vaccination campaigns.
- The U.S. and Europe will emerge relatively quickly given their more successful vaccination campaigns, but slower vaccine rollouts in Japan and Korea will slow economic growth and the developing world will struggle under the weight of lagging vaccination efforts and limited external financing.
- The Biden administration will continue efforts to improve diplomatic relationships, looking to resolve trade disputes and instigate greater cooperation on issues like climate change and global taxation.
- The U.S. will also continue efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, though until a deal is reached we expect a continued aggressive expansion of Iran’s nuclear program and a high risk of asymmetric activity in the quarter.
- We expect U.S.-China tensions to escalate as an increased focus on human rights and COVID-19 investigations come into conflict with China’s rising domestic nationalism.
- In Russia, the Kremlin will seek to minimize political blowback ahead of September elections, pushing responsibility for vaccination efforts and policy to regional and local leaders.
- In Russia, the Kremlin will keep a tight lid on any opposition that emerges during national elections in September and will impose mandatory vaccination campaigns.
- September will also see elections in Germany that could result in a divided lower house of parliament, making coalition negotiations likely.
- The much-anticipated U.S. pullout from Afghanistan by Sept. 11 will see a new power structure in Afghanistan emerge as the Taliban looks to seize more control.