Institute for the Study of War@TheStudyofWar
6/6: Read more in this important new essay from ISW Russia Fellow5/ If Russia wins in Ukraine because of the collapse of Western aid, it will be because Russia has managed to shape American’s understanding of reality such that the US willingly chooses to act against its interests and values without realizing that it is doing so.4/ Most dangerous of all, however, US adversaries would learn that they can break America’s will to act in support of its strategic interests.3/ A victorious Russia would likely emerge reconstituted and more determined to undermine the US – and confident that it can. A Russian victory would diminish America’s deterrence around the world, emboldening others with an explicit or latent intent to harm the US.2/ Allowing Russia to win its war in Ukraine would be a self-imposed strategic defeat for the US. The US would face the risk of a larger and costlier war in Europe. The US would face the worst threat from Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.NEW: Putin needs the US to choose inaction in Ukraine, otherwise Russia cannot win. If Russia wins in Ukraine, @nataliabugayova says in a new essay, US adversaries will learn that America can be manipulated into abandoning its own interests in a winnable fight. Thread (1/6)