MAY 4, 2024 | Eighteenth-century French journalist Antoine de Rivarol is renowned for the saying, ce qui n’est pas clair n’est pas français («What is not clear is not French»). Not so much with French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent speech at the Sorbonne, in which he laid out an ambitious plan for Europe’s future. As former French ambassador to the US Gérard Araud writes for the Atlantic Council this week, the speech was «too long and too French,» lacking in specifics to implement its goals. With Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to Europe amid escalating trade tensions, starting with a visit to France on Monday, clarity on EU-China relations is essential. Below, our experts make sense (in English) of Xi’s charm offensive and more from around the world this week.

Yin-yang diplomacy. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to France, Serbia, and Hungary has geopolitical observers eager to parse the signals coming from all sides, a year into the EU’s efforts to «de-risk» from China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to join Xi and Macron in Paris on the first day of the visit. Léonie Allard, a visiting fellow in our Europe Center from the French Ministry of Armed Forces, says this will be vital to projecting a unified EU approach. But as Brussels-based expert Roderick Kefferpütz puts it, the big question is whether Xi has anything attractive to offer. «Will the emperor bring gifts, such as Chinese participation in the Ukraine peace conference, reduced material support for Russia, and greater economic opportunities for the EU?» Find more expert insight here.

Incredible India. Some 970 million people are eligible to vote in India’s ongoing general elections—the largest democratic exercise ever. While the re-election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third five-year term appears inevitable, Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, says it’s worth reflecting on the global ramifications of Modi’s India as its economy and ambitions grow. Will it expand its economic relationship with autocratic Russia as it has done since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022? Or will it continue to deepen relations and security ties with the United States?  Find out in Fred’s analysis of «Global India» here.

Gender apartheid alert. The Taliban’s oppression of women and girls in Afghanistan is well known at this point. But it’s not just an Afghanistan problem. Human rights activist Samira Abrar argues that the country’s misrule sends a dangerous signal globally that «violence against women can be tolerated and even condoned.» While ongoing abuses have sparked diplomatic condemnation from the international community, Samira highlights a deeper issue: the diminishing consensus among nations on how to effectively address these violations. One of the major risks associated with this trend, she points out, is «the normalization of the extremists.» Explore Samira’s take on what the international community can do now.

East or west? Africa is home to 30 percent of the world’s critical minerals, and both Russia and the United States are eager to partner with African countries to extract them. Alexander Tripp, a security and trade expert at our Africa Center, outlines the strategic choices facing African nations: Russia offers quid pro quo partnerships, promising military and political support alongside anti-imperialist messaging. In contrast, the United States prioritizes economic and community development. As the divergence between these models widens, Alex underscores that each «offers something that the other cannot.» Read more on what this means for Africa, Russia, and the United States.

Numbers game. Charles Lichfield and Mrugank Bhusari of our GeoEconomics Center dusted off their corporate finance textbooks to dissect different proposals to get money to Ukraine from blocked Russian assets. The EU’s plan promises around $3.5 billion annually from the interest income, but it falls short of Ukraine’s needs. The United States has floated a $50 billion sovereign loan to be repaid using that interest income. But does the math add up? Charles and Gank looked at a scenario where the loan is repaid over twenty years. Pulling forward future interest earnings—the approach advocated by the White House’s Daleep Singh—amounts to $52.46 billion.  Pull out your calculator and explore their deeper insights on the viability of the plan.