The world is entering a more dangerous nuclear era. Russia and China are simultaneously modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals, presenting the United States with the prospect of facing two nuclear peers for the first time in its history. The collapse of the New START treaty has removed the last remaining constraints on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces.
Escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and instability in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula compound an already fraught threat environment. As U.S. extended deterrence commitments come under greater strain, the potential of allied proliferation risks further destabilizing an already volatile international order.
Against this complex backdrop, longstanding assumptions about U.S. nuclear posture, modernization requirements, nuclear testing, arms control, the governance of emerging technologies with nuclear implications, and the future of initiatives like U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile and drone defense system are all under scrutiny.