An Israeli tank drives past damaged buildings near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on January 19, 2024. (Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images) v @CFR
The second Donald Trump administration assumes office at a moment of great peril for the United States. The level of armed conflict around the world has steadily grown in recent years, which in turn has increased the risk of costly U.S. military intervention.
Each year, the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) conducts CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) to help policymakers navigate and prioritize in an increasingly turbulent world. We could not do it without your help: back in October, we asked you which conflicts and crises you were worried about going into 2025. We compiled your suggestions, and nearly 680 foreign policy experts rated each contingency based on its likelihood of occurring and its potential impact on U.S. interests. The results are in, and the 2025 Preventive Priorities Survey is here.
There have never been so many contingencies rated as high likelihood/high impact events (five) since the PPS began in 2008. Put differently, the level of anxiety experts feel about the risk of violent conflict in the coming year has never been greater. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine, confrontations in the West Bank and at the U.S.-Mexico border, and hostilities between Iran and Israel were the top concerns.
“The Trump administration should not only be clear sighted about the risks of an increasingly turbulent world but also craft policies designed to deliberately lessen the dangers ahead. Otherwise, it could become overwhelmed by multiple concurrent crises with calamitous consequences for the United States,” said Paul B. Stares, CPA director and General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention.
Thank you for your suggestions; we invite you to explore this year’s findings.
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About The Center for Preventive Action |
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The Center for Preventive Action (CPA) aims to help policymakers devise timely and practical strategies to prevent and mitigate armed conflict around the world, especially in places where U.S. interests are most at risk. Geopolitical friction among the major powers is intensifying, creating serious risks of armed conflict, while the effects of climate change and other threats to international peace and security are evolving in new and destabilizing ways. CPA’s work is focused on trying to anticipate how and where these challenges may arise, and which are more deserving of attention than others, so that policymakers can prioritize and craft sensible preventive measures. |
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