Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand

 

This might be the best explanation I heard for «why Oct 7» and, surprisingly, it comes from Ami Ayalon, former head of the Shin Bet, Israel’s secret service, and commander-in-chief of the Navy.

 

Here what he says (this is the first video, there are a couple more below which you’ll really want to watch): He says the «most important cause [of Oct 7]» was «the political paradigm», whereby Israel’s policy was «divide and rule», meaning Israel «had to make sure Palestinians would not have a unified leadership» and could therefore always say «nobody to talk with, nothing to talk about».

 

Concretely «in order to do it [Israel] had to make sure Hamas would go on controlling Gaza and the Palestinian authority the West bank», and incite them to «fight each other». This is why Israel «enhanced and assisted Hamas, transferred money, etc.»

 

As a result of all this Hamas «got the Palestinians’ support» because «they became the only administration who fought against the Israeli occupation and for the purpose of Palestinian freedom» while Fatah and the Palestinian authority became perceived as «Israeli collaborators». In his assessment «between 70 to 80% of the Palestinians are supporting Hamas, only because Hamas is perceived as the one who fight for [their] freedom.»

 

He says Israel completely misunderstood the situation before Oct 7 because it measures «hardware» whilst Hamas measures «software», meaning that after every fight between Israel and the Palestinians, success for Israel is measured in «losses in human life, in military installations, in military infrastructure» whereas what Hamas measures is «the support of the people.»

 

As an illustration he says that in May 2021 – when there was fighting during 2 weeks and around 300 Palestinians were killed (to 17 on the Israeli side) – Israel thought that Hamas «suffered a huge loss and a huge military defeat» but from Hamas’s standpoint it was «a huge victory» because this led to Hamas, for the first time, getting «more than 50% of the support from the Palestinian people.»