Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

30 enero, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios

Subjective and Objective Measures of Democratic Backsliding

Andrew Little

University of California, Berkeley

Anne Meng

University of Virginia

Date Written: January 17, 2023

Abstract

Despite the general narrative that we are in a period of global democratic decline, there have been surprisingly few empirical studies to assess whether this is systematically true. Most existing studies of backsliding rely heavily, if not entirely, on subjective indicators which rely on expert coder judgement. We survey other more objective indicators of democracy (such as incumbent performance in elections), and find little evidence of global democratic decline over the last decade. To explain the discrepancy between trends in subjective and objective indicators, we develop formal models that consider the role of coder bias and leaders strategically using more subtle undemocratic action. The simplest explanation is that recent declines in average democracy scores are driven by changes in coder bias. While we cannot rule out the possibility that the world is experiencing major democratic backsliding almost exclusively in ways which require subjective judgement to detect, this claim not justified by existing evidence.

Little, Andrew and Meng, Anne, Subjective and Objective Measurement of Democratic Backsliding (January 17, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4327307

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Opinion

 What if the crisis of democracy is (mostly) in our heads?

 
The Washington Post (Jan 30, 2023) at 8:30 h
 
Francis Fukuyama’s “end of history” thesis, advanced as the Cold War came to a close, is a pundit’s favorite punching bag. The sense of democratic optimism, security and confidence that defined the 1990s has clearly diminished. In the past decade, Western global influence declined; great-power competition surged; societies polarized and populist leaders rose.

But Fukuyama’s basic interpretation of the Soviet Union’s collapse — that it left liberal democracy as the “final form of human government” with widespread appeal and prestige — has proven surprisingly resilient. A new research paper challenges the avalanche of popular and academic commentary declaring that, especially since 2016, the world has faced a systemic crisis of democracy.

In “Subjective and Objective Measures of Democratic Backsliding,” the political scientists Andrew Little of the University of California at Berkeley and Anne Meng of the University of Virginia find that the post-Cold War expansion of democracy in nations around the world has, on average, held. “Recent studies that find evidence of global backsliding,” they observe, “rely heavily if not entirely on subjective indicators” — such as asking experts to rate, based on their own judgment, the extent to which an election was “free and fair.”

Little and Meng instead measure democracy based on quantifiable factors less susceptible to individual bias. They find, for example, no overall decline in electoral competition. Across the world, “The rate of leader and ruling party turnover has remained fairly constant since the late 1990s,” the paper says. “If anything, the vote shares of incumbent leaders in executive elections and incumbent parties in legislatures have decreased in recent years.”

They also measured the prevalence of constraints on national leaders, such as term limits. From 2000 to 2018, according to the paper, 60 leaders sought to evade term limits, and 34 succeeded, but the rate was “fairly constant” over time. In an attempt to objectively measure press freedom, the authors analyze data from the Committee to Protect Journalists. It’s a mixed picture: Murders of journalists have been declining since 2008, but the number of journalists imprisoned has been rising since 2000.

The authors created their own democracy index reaching back to 1980, relying on hard inputs such as the share of a population eligible to vote, rather than subjective interpretation by experts. “The index in 2020 is nearly as high as it has ever been,” they conclude.

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27 enero, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios

España en el mundo 2023

España en el mundo 2023. Mapa de España digital. Crédito: themotioncloud.

#España en el #mundo 2023. Undécima edición del policy paper colectivo elaborado por el equipo de investigación del  @rielcano

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Resumen[1]

Undécima edición del trabajo colectivo que elabora el Real Instituto Elcano para hacer balance del año recién terminado, identificar las perspectivas que presenta el escenario internacional actual y analizar los desafíos de la acción exterior española en los próximos 12 meses. Como en la edición anterior, el texto está estructurado en torno a 10 ejes de análisis: influencia e imagen exterior de España; Unión Europea; vecindad; seguridad; clima y energía; economía y tecnología; globalización, desarrollo y gobernanza; competición China-Estados Unidos (EEUU), América Latina; y democracia, derechos y ciudadanía.

2022 arrancó como un año centrado en la recuperación económica (con el control de la inflación y el rediseño de las reglas fiscales europeas como retos destacables), pero el ataque de Rusia al poco de iniciarse el año supuso un reajuste de prioridades brusco. Con la decisión de proveer ayuda militar y financiera a Ucrania, las rondas sucesivas de sanciones a la economía rusa y la reconfiguración de las políticas energéticas europeas se configuró una respuesta firme tanto desde la Unión Europea (UE) en su conjunto como de España en particular. Una combinación de firmeza y prudencia por parte de la Administración Biden permitió recomponer el liderazgo internacional estadounidense, debilitado tras la retirada de Afganistán. La cumbre de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN) celebrada en Madrid confirmó que el atlantismo se ha visto plenamente reforzado en el contexto de la guerra.

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27 enero, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios

The Geopolitics of Water (GPF)

January 25, 2023
Water is so fundamental to geopolitics that it is often overlooked. Antonia Colibasanu joins John Batchelor to discuss this finite resource, and how many countries like China, Pakistan, and Iran will need to take measures in the coming year to prevent crises. In the second segment, updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the 101st Airborne is deployed into Constanța.

LISTEN to podcast

 

25 enero, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios

Doomsday Clock Closest to Midnight Ever in its History

 
thebulletin.org
PRESS RELEASE: Doomsday Clock set at 90 seconds to midnight
The Doomsday Clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight, due largely but not exclusively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increased risk of nuclear escalation. The new Clock time was also…
 
By  | January 24, 2023

WASHINGTON, D.C. – January 24, 2023 The Doomsday Clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight, due largely but not exclusively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increased risk of nuclear escalation. The new Clock time was also influenced by continuing threats posed by the climate crisis and the breakdown of global norms and institutions needed to mitigate risks associated with advancing technologies and biological threats such as COVID-19.

Rachel Bronson, PhD, president and CEO, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said: “We are living in a time of unprecedented danger, and the Doomsday Clock time reflects that reality. 90 seconds to midnight is the closest the Clock has ever been set to midnight, and it’s a decision our experts do not take lightly. The US government, its NATO allies and Ukraine have a multitude of channels for dialogue; we urge leaders to explore all of them to their fullest ability to turn back the Clock.”

The Doomsday Clock’s time is set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board with the support of the Bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, which includes 10 Nobel Laureates. Previously, the Doomsday Clock had been set at 100 seconds to midnight since 2020.

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24 enero, 2023
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios

Hablando de defensa y seguridad (podcast semanal)

Infodefensa

Hablemos de Defensa y Seguridad: Nuevo programa de IDS en Capital Radio

El grupo editorial IDS da un paso más en su compromiso con la información con un nuevo proyecto de comunicación en Capital Radio

Hablemos de Defensa y Seguridad es el nuevo programa de radio del sector con el que el grupo IDS amplía sus canales de difusión, integrados por prensa on line (infodefensa.cominfoespacial.com infodron.es), publicaciones en papel (Perfiles y Spain), eventos (UNVEX, el Congreso de Emergencias, SYMDEX y el Foro Infodefensa), audiovisual (infodefensaTV), y ahora, radio.

A partir de mañana, y con periodicidad semanal, IDS repasará en la radio las noticias más relevantes sobre defensa, seguridad, industria, tecnología, drones, espacio… Además de compartir micrófono con las voces más importantes del sector.

Tierra, mar, aire, empresas, defensa, seguridad, tecnología… De España a América pasando por el resto del mundo. Todo esto y mucho más es Hablemos de Defensa y Seguridad, un programa de IDS con la colaboración de Tedae y de Capital Radio.

El nuevo espacio radiofónico está dirigido por la periodista Belén Montes, que semanalmente analizará la actualidad del sector y entrevistará a los actores más relevantes. Hablemos de Defensa y Seguridad se podrá disfrutar en formato podcast en la portada de infodefensa.com.

El primer programa se emitirá mañana día 25 de enero, y contará con la presencia del presidente de Tedae, Ricardo Martí Fluxá, y del profesor de la Universidad Complutense y colaborador habitual de infodefensa.com Antonio Fonfría, que repasará las claves que se darán al día siguiente en el Foro Infodefensa, del que es moderador.

 
Escucha el Podcast a partir de mañana miércoles
a las 16:00 en Infodefensa.com