Relaciones Internacionales – Comunicación Internacional

3 noviembre, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Surprising new polling data days before the US election (CNN)

With two days to go until the US presidential election, Fareed hosts Ron Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and CNN senior political analyst, and Emily Bazelon, a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine and senior research scholar at Yale Law School, to discus the latest swing-state polling and shifting demographic trends.

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Oh come on’: Bash presses Tim Scott on Trump’s false claims

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Trump campaign tries to spin Trump’s comments about media getting shot

‘He’s not closing well’: David Axelrod reacts to Trump’s final campaign push

 

3 noviembre, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

US 2024 elections and the fates of nations (RAND)

Cover: The Fates of Nations

Varieties of Success and Failure for Great Powers in Long-Term Rivalries

Michael J. MazarrAlexis Dale-HuangJohn DeakGregory Weider FauerbachStacie GoddardTimothy R. HeathJoshua Shifrinson

 Apr 10, 2024

he United States, according to official U.S. national security statements and an avalanche of commentary since about 2016, is engaged in a long-term strategic rivalry with China and a lesser — but still critical — rivalry for influence with Russia. Many U.S. strategy documents refer to the concept of strategic competition, but the core idea — and increasingly the reality — of these relationships matches the classic historical concept of a great power rivalry. These rivalries, especially with China, promise to define U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges for decades. Yet most assessments of these rivalries tend to ignore the critical question of outcomes.

This report is part of a larger project on the societal sources of national dynamism and competitive advantage. This research aims to identify historical modes of strategic success and failure in great power rivalries that offer lessons for the United States. The authors define categories of success and failure (in terms of such variables as control over territory, relative power, victory or defeat in war, international legitimacy, and social stability) and present detailed case studies on specific historical examples that are associated with success and failure. They also discuss the implications of the typologies of both kinds of outcomes for the rivalry with China.

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31 octubre, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

Is Journalism Ready for a Second Trump Administration? (The Atlantic)

A conversation with The Atlantic’s editor in chief, Jeffrey Goldberg
By Hanna Rosin

October 31, 2024, 11:41 AM ET

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump has been very clear about the shape of his revenge against the mainstream media. He’s mused, a few times, about throwing reporters in jail if they refuse to leak their sources. He’s talked about taking away broadcast licenses of networks he’s
deemed unfriendly. He’s made it clear that he will notice if any member of the press gets too free with their critiques and do his best to get in their way. These last couple of weeks, we’ve gotten a signal that maybe his threats are having an impact. Both The Washington Post and
the Los Angeles Times had prepared endorsements of Kamala Harris, and their owners asked them at the last minute not to run them.

Media reporters floated the obvious question of whether the owners backed off to appease Trump. In this episode, we talk to Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic. This year, The Atlantic made the decision, rare in its history but consistent during the Trump years, to endorse a presidential candidate. (You can read the magazine’s endorsement of Kamala Harris here.) Goldberg talks about navigating both pressures from owners and threats from the administration. And we discuss the urgent question of whether the media, pummeled and
discredited for years by Trump, is ready for a second Trump administration.

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PdF: Journalism and Trump 2º

30 octubre, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

¿Donald Trump o Kamala Harris? Elecciones presidenciales en EE. UU.

30/10/24. Estados Unidos celebra sus elecciones presidenciales el próximo martes 5 de noviembre. Los sondeos auguran un escenario muy reñido en una contienda entre los dos principales candidatos: el republicano Donald Trump, que ya fue presidente de 2016 a 2020, y la demócrata Kamala Harris, vicepresidenta del actual presidente Joe Biden entre 2016 y 2020.

Las elecciones presidenciales las gana no el candidato que tiene más votos sino el que consigue los 270 votos electorales. Cada estado tiene un número determinado de votos electorales y, en casi todos, se juegan bajo la fórmula the winner takes it all y quien gana se lleva todos los votos electorales. Con este sistema, los analistas creen que la victoria se jugará en un puñado de estados, considerados swing states, en los que la diferencia entre los aspirantes es inferior a tres puntos.

Este año son: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pensilvania, Carolina del Norte y Georgia. Casa de América organiza este debate para analizar las posibilidades de ambos candidatos, quiénes son los grupos de electores clave, el papel de los hispanos en la elección y las posibles consecuencias en política exterior de la victoria de uno u otra , especialmente en sus relaciones con Latinoamérica y España. Esta mesa redonda se enmarca en nuestro ciclo ‘América Vota’ en el que hacemos un seguimiento a estos procesos electorales con expertos en análisis electoral, que ofrecerán las claves para entender los mismos.

INCIPE, 31 de octubre de 2024

Gideon talks to Ivo Daalder, a former American ambassador to Nato and chief executive of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, about the potential threat to US democracy if Donald Trump wins next week’s presidential election. Clip: Politico

Free links to read more on this topic in the FT:

How Trump learnt to love big business

Trump is the man who would be king

America isn’t too worried about fascism

Kamala Harris warns of ‘more chaos’ under Donald Trump and vows ‘different path’

Oct 30, 2024

As Americans prepare to go to the polls on 5th November, the world is closely following the campaigns of both Vice President Kamala Harris and Former US President Donald Trump for President of the United States. America’s commitment to many global issues, as well as the strength of democracy, will be tested on Tuesday 5 November.

Ahead of polling day, experts will look at key questions including:

  • How are things shaping up in battleground states?
  • How are America’s foreign policy decisions influencing US voters?
  • Has Kamala Harris changed the direction of the Democratic Party in comparison to the Biden era?
  • How will this election impact the future of the Republican party?

Related

Trump or Harris: Who’s ahead in the polls?

 

30 octubre, 2024
por Felipe Sahagún
Sin comentarios

The rise of the middle powers (WEF)

Earth.

  • Middle powers are influential states that sit below superpowers and great powers.
  • They could be instrumental in forming a new multilateralism to help solve global challenges.
  • The topic was discussed in the Davos 2024 session ‘Middle Powers in a Multipolar World’.
 
António Guterres’ Special Address at Davos 2024 was stark. The United Nations Secretary-General warned that the world must act now in the face of “serious, even existential threats” posed by climate change and the development of artificial intelligence without guardrails.

“We have no effective global strategy to deal with either,” he said. “Geopolitical divides are preventing us from coming together around global solutions.”

He was, however, optimistic that a solution could be found in building a new multipolar global order through “a reformed, inclusive and networked multilateralism”.

Middle powers – which havelong played an important role in international innovation and mediation – could be key to realizing this vision, according to a new World Economic Forum whitepaper, Shaping Cooperation in a Fragmenting World.

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Related

 Middle powers today have more agency than at any time since World War II (F Policy)

Importance Of The Middle Powers – International Research

Middle Powers are reshaping geopolitics – Financial Times

Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of  middle powers (ECFR)

The new world order and the rise of the middle powers (Financial Times)

Middle Powers in the Multipolar World  (peacediplomacy.og)

Briefing Can Middle Powers Save the Liberal World Order? (Chatham House)

Welcome to the “neomedieval era” (Vox)