Vali Nasr@vali_nasrRobert Kaplan on what next in the Middle East: Order After Empire
The history of empire involves a confusion. In the minds of many, it is associated with European rule over large parts of the developing world that forever stains the reputation of the West. But empire has taken many non-Western forms, especially in the Middle East. Beginning with the Umayyad dynasty in seventh-century Damascus, a series of Muslim caliphates established far-flung rule, sometimes spanning the Mediterranean. In subsequent centuries, they were followed by the Ottomans, who extended their rule to the Balkans, and the Omani Sultanate, which in the nineteenth century spread from the Persian Gulf to parts of Iran and Pakistan, as well as to Muslim East Africa. Only in the later stages of the history of empire were the Europeans a significant part of this story.
Across the Middle East, this varied experience of empire has impeded the development of nation-states like those in Europe and therefore helps account for the region’s lack of stability. Indeed, for many Middle Eastern regimes, the question of how to guarantee a reasonable degree of order with the minimum degree of coercion has not been resolved.
One major reason for the violence and instability in the Middle East in recent decades, however disturbing it is to contemporary sensibilities, is that for the first time in modern history, the region lacks any kind of imperially imposed order. The fact that democracy has so far failed to take root—even in countries where it has shown some promise, such as Tunisia—is an indication of the debilitating legacy of imperial rule. Empire, by providing a distasteful but enduring solution to order, has inhibited other solutions from taking hold.