Global Forecasting Service (EIU) |

Forecast closing date: April 15th 2015 | Next forecast: May 20th 2015

Intensity

Scenario

	Economic stagnation and political populism prompt a euro zone break-up
	A commodity price slump and investment crunch in China entrench the emerging-market slowdown
	A sustained decline in oil prices provides a global economic fillip
	Russia’s intervention in Ukraine escalates, leading to renewed Cold War-era tensions
	The deteriorating security situation in the Middle East threatens global economic stability
	Tensions over currency volatility lead to a rise in protectionism
	A rapid recovery in parts of the OECD drives global growth higher
	US economy stumbles in the face of monetary tightening and political dysfunction
	Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest
	A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock