15 octubre, 2020
por Felipe Sahagún
1 Comentario
A Better Crystal Ball The Right Way to Think About the Future By J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock November/December 2020 very policy is a prediction. Tax cuts will boost the economy. Sanctions will slow Iran’s nuclear program. Travel bans … Continuar leyendo
12 septiembre, 2020
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios
What to Do Simulations have forecast disastrous consequences before. Here’s how to act on the lessons of wargames before they come to pass. foreignpolicy.com #Simulations#forecasting v @ForeignPolicy PDF
6 octubre, 2016
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios
Milo Jones @Inveniam Note to Futurists: The Maximum Effective Range of a Prediction is 20 Years http://warontherocks.com/2016/10/note-to-futurists-dont-get-more-than-20-years-ahead/ … 02:09 – 6 oct 2016 Note to Futurists: Don’t Get More Than 20 Years Ahead Earlier this summer, I wrote about an Army … Continuar leyendo
3 septiembre, 2016
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios
Global problems such as terrorism, inequality and political dysfunction aren’t easy to solve, but that doesn’t mean we should stop trying. In fact, suggests journalist Jonathan Tepperman, we might even want to think riskier. He traveled the world to … Continuar leyendo
8 junio, 2016
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios
The US presidential election looks set to be a showdown between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and the parlour game of picking a winner is kicking off worldwide. Opinion polls this election season have been notoriously off the mark, with … Continuar leyendo
20 febrero, 2016
por Felipe Sahagún
0 Comentarios
@FortuneMagazine Why it’s time to start looking at Africa http://for.tn/1QpE12t Leading innovation expert Alec Ross explains what’s next for the world: the advances and stumbling blocks that will emerge in the next ten years, and how we can navigate them. … Continuar leyendo