The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict -crisisgroup.org 12:00 PM · Jul 6, 2020
Outlook for This Month: July 2020
Conflict Risk Alerts
Trends for Last MonthJune 2020
The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in June in sixteen countries and conflict situations – the majority in Africa and Asia – as well as improved situations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Somaliland.
In India, counter-insurgency operations inside Jammu and Kashmir sharply intensified, while the most lethal border clashes in over five decades with China killed at least twenty Indian soldiers.
In Ethiopia, frictions heightened between the federal government and Tigray region over the electoral calendar, and the killing of a popular ethnic Oromo musician sparked deadly unrest in the capital Addis Ababa and the Oromia region.
Meanwhile, criminal groups’ persistent violence led to Mexico’s deadliest day in 2020 on 8 June, setting the country on course for its bloodiest year on record.
Looking ahead to July, CrisisWatch warns of two conflict risks. In Israel/Palestine, a potential parliamentary vote to extend Israeli sovereignty over portions of the West Bank could significantly raise tensions. In Libya, fighting could escalate after the front line shifted eastward around the strategic city of Sirte and Egypt threatened military intervention.
We also flag a resolution opportunity in the coming month in Afghanistan. Following incremental progress in the peace process between the government and the Taliban in June, long-awaited intra-Afghan talks could start in July.