Giorgi Revishvili@revishvilig
Very insightful points from General Cavoli’s statement today:
– Ukraine cannot sustain this fight alone. The United States, our allies, and partners must continue to provide Ukraine with munitions, weapons, and materiel. 1/14
-On Russia: Russia relies on the mass and quantity available to a large country, and despite its military’s evident deficiencies and dysfunctions, continues to pose an existential threat to Ukraine. 2/14
-During this conflict Russia’s strategic forces, long range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10% of their fleet. 3/14
-The navy has suffered significantly in the Black Sea – but nowhere else and Russian naval activity worldwide is at a significant peak. 4/14
-Russia has suffered, losing over 2,000 tanks and 315,000 soldiers wounded or dead. However, Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested. 5/14
-The army is actually now larger – by 15 percent – than it was when it invaded Ukraine. Over the past year, Russia increased its front line troop strength from 360,000 to 65 470,000. 6/14
-Regardless of the outcome of the war in 94 Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded. 7/14
-On Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran: This [Russia, PRC, DPRK and Iran] block of adversaries is more cohesive and dangerous than any threat the United States has faced in decades. 8/14
-The PRC, Iran, and DPRK are sustaining Russia’s economy and enabling it to continue its aggression in Ukraine. This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an increasingly challenging international security environment. 9/14
-As of March 2024, the DPRK provided Russia with roughly 6,700 containers that could contain up to three million artillery shells. Iran has provided Russia with drones, artillery, and missiles that have enhanced Russia’s lethality in Ukraine. 10/14
-This new axis of adversaries will create strategic dilemmas within an 107 increasingly challenging international security environment. 11/14
-On China: Certainly, PRC is closely watching the conflict in Ukraine – learning military lessons, political lessons, and trying to project those onto China’s own interests. 12/14
-Moreover, PRC’s increased support for Russia reveals the depths of the Chinese Communist Party’s commitment to partnerships that challenge our collective security. 13/14
–The continued “No-Limits” partnership between PRC and positions PRC as a formidable adversary to European interests. This partnership is not just diplomatic; it extends to informational, economic, and military realms, aiding nations that exhibit hostility and aggression. 14/14
Additional points:
- General Cavoli: «They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1. That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks. We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically»
- The situation is extremely serious. the biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery … and should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying.”
- If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order.
- I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math. Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses.
- The U.S. provides the “lion’s share” of 155mm caliber artillery shells to Ukraine and is also the main supplier of the country’s ground-based air defense — “the most critical things on the battlefield.
- Russia’s frequent large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine are expected to become more devastating as Ukraine’s supply of interceptors for air defense dwindle.
- “Those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against. Without U.S. provision of interceptors, that will happen.” end/
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