Alexander Stubb@alexstubb
In attacking Ukraine Putin made three fundamental mistakes:
1. He overestimated the capabilities and commitment of the Russian military.
2. He understimated the resilience and strength of the Ukrainian armed forces and civilians.
3. He underestimated the unity and support of the West.
Subsequently he ended up achieving the exact opposite to what he aimed for:
1. A European Ukraine.
2. A united Europe.
3. A stronger Transatlantic partnership.
4. A rejuvenation of Nato.
5. A Finnish and Swedish membership in Nato.
6. An eventual further enlargement of the EU and Nato.
7. A decoupling of Russian and European trade and energy.
8. A loss of close partnerships in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
9. An increase of European and American military spending.
10. A humiliation of the Russian military. Putin’s agression will go down as the biggest strategic, tactical and military failure in recent history. That is what happens when an authoritarian leader gets blinded by his imperialist and revisionist vision and illusion about his own place in history.