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The Future of the Middle East

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The Future of the Middle East

An e-book from Global Policy and Arab Digest Guest Edited by Hugh Miles and Alastair Newton.

The Middle East is in chaos and the old order is breaking down. In many countries across the region the Sunni Arabs are revolting, no longer accepting their miserable status in the world today, their lack of freedoms, rights and prosperity. All they see is a relatively if not absolutely weaker West propping up their enemies, Israel, dictators, the Kurds, even now Iran. Desperate for change, growing numbers of people have turned to Islamist movements; but their victories have been consistently subverted and denied. Predictably the result has been a slide into extremism and the rise of radical groups across the region.

What can be done? The West is faced with a choice. One option is to continue on the current path, trying to deal with the extremist phenomenon using the security defence surveillance model. This model has already demonstrably failed, with radical Islam expanding on every metric since the “War on Terror” began in 2003. Maybe it would suit tackling a guerrilla organisation in Latin America but it has done nothing to address the grievances and aspirations of millions of Arabs spanning the Middle East and North Africa, plus many more living in the West and in Asia. Continuing on this path leads to polarisation and ultimately segregation, ghettos, and unending war between Europe and the Sunni Arabs, just as bin Laden predicted.

The only viable alternative is to allow the people in the Arab world to tackle the problem themselves. Radical Islam is a Sunni Muslim problem and it has to have a Sunni Muslim solution. As a starting point this means allowing people in the region to determine who governs them, as only a normal political life, above all in the two dominant countries in the region, Egypt, the cultural and historical hegemon, and Saudi Arabia, the religious and financial powerhouse, can drain the ideological and economic swamps feeding radical Islam. This path requires a fundamental rebalancing of the relationship between the Sunni Muslim world and the West and between the current leaders in the Arab world and their subjects/citizens, where majority political choices are respected and, where they win elections, Islamist parties are allowed to take power. At the moment most western policy makers and Arab leaders alike refuse to accept this as a option or even recognise that the old political order has irrevocably broken down. Instead they continue to cling to the old model even though the region’s dictators, actual and de facto, are the principal driving force of the radical movements they are trying to fight.

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